Premier League Festive Season Betting Trends To Look Out For This Year

Four teams below stand out, from head-turning home teams to sides hitting a strong run of form that was nowhere to be seen in the opening stages of the season.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Nottingham Forest’s Switch to Over 2.5 Goals

Nottingham Forest have shown a different side to their game over the last couple of months. They began the season with seven of their eight matches ending in 1-0 or 1-1 scorelines, failing to reach the over 2.5 goal line.

However, since the international break in October, we have started to see a completely different trend in the nine matches that followed that October international break. Forest witnessed 3.00 goals per 90 (27 in total) in those nine Premier League fixtures. While they continue to win games and put points on the board, they are now doing so with more flair.

From a betting perspective, seven of those nine games in this period breached the over 2.5-line. With Brentford away this weekend and Tottenham the following one, this goals trend may well continue into the festive season.

Bournemouth: Surpassing Expectations with Data-Driven Goals

Only Liverpool and Arsenal boast a bigger expected points tally (xPTS) than Bournemouth this season. If the standings were decided on xPTS, Bournemouth’s 29.99 xPTS would put them in third, ahead of Chelsea, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City. This is remarkable for a team like Bournemouth.

Their approach and capability to carve out consistent goalscoring opportunities against any Premier League club makes them a team to watch in the goals markets. Ahead of their trip to Old Trafford on Saturday, the previous data and trends from their last seven matches offer interesting insights.

Five of Bournemouth’s recent seven Premier League matches have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals. The two matches that didn’t meet these criteria still had impressive xG (expected goals) figures: 4.58 xG against Spurs (1-0) and 4.07 xG against West Ham (1-1) on Monday night.

Crystal Palace Resurgence

The Eagles are finding their form. After a tough start to the season, influenced by an underwhelming transfer window and fatigue from the Olympics, Euro 2024 and Copa America, Oliver Glasner is getting his team to play the way he wants.

Palace have lost just once in their last eight matches, hosting Arsenal at Selhurst Park on the back of a five-game unbeaten run. The 1-3 victory over rivals Brighton over the weekend was well-deserved. The 2.31 xG in that away game against a decent Seagulls side is sure to have caught the attention of bettors.

The Brighton result followed a 2-2 draw against champions Manchester City (1.45 xG), where Crystal Palace (1.34 xG) held their own against their opponents.

With Bournemouth on December 26th and Southampton at home three days later, many will see these as two games where Crystal Palace could continue their good form. Given their newfound resurgence in forward areas, alongside Bournemouth’s capability up front, over 2.5 goals at 1.72 could be one way to bet on Crystal Palace this festive season.

Brentford Home Form

Brentford have secured 22 of the 24 available points in front of their home support. No other team in the Premier League has returned as many points at home as The Bees.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of eight Brentford home matches. Thomas Frank’s side have scored six more goals at home than anyone - 26 in total, while conceding 14 - more than any side in the top half of the table. In terms of the underlying data, their 18.0 xG created at home is higher than any other Premier League outfit.

The Bees’ Premier League fixtures at the Gtech Stadium average 5.00 goals per 90. Wolves’ 4.00 goals per 90 in the Midlands is next best for the neutrals, but still nowhere near compared to what is happening in Brentford.

When over 2.5 goals can be backed in a Brentford home game at 1.72, as it can against Nottingham Forest, it is definitely worth considering.