While outscoring Erling Haaland is far-fetched, Pedro is certainly worth considering for an each-way Golden Boot wager at Betway.
- Joao Pedro has two goals in three Premier League matches.
- Brighton have generated the fourth-most expected goals so far.
- Pedro was Brighton’s top scorer in the Premier League in 2023-24.
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Brighton Attack Creating Chances
Brighton have started the season in fine form. An emphatic 3–0 win over Everton was followed by a home victory against Manchester United and a draw at Arsenal. Joao Pedro has been a massive part of their early-season success, scoring two goals and averaging 1.7 completed dribbles per match.
Brighton have the fourth-most expected goals generated so far this season with five. Pedro’s 0.30 expected goals per 90 is lower than his mark from last season (0.53), but we are dealing in small samples at this stage of the campaign.
His 0.53 expected goals per 90 in 2023-24 was by far the highest of his career. That ranked 10th in the Premier League. Notably, he underachieved his expected goals mark, suggesting he can be more productive than his nine Premier League goals last term.
Pedro’s underlying metrics indicate he might have already had his breakout season. In his age-23 season, though, there’s every chance the Brazilian takes another leap in 2024-25.
Numbers Prepare Bettors for Joao Pedro Breakout
Betway price Pedro at 51.00 to win the Golden Boot, with an each-way wager paying four places. Fourth-place scored 19 goals last season, 19 in 2022-23, and 17 in 2021-22. If Pedro scores 20 league goals, he’s pretty much a lock for a top-four placing in this market.
Yes, that means over double his goal return from 2023-24, but it’s within Pedro’s reach if this Brighton attack can continue to produce at this rate. Averaging around 0.5 expected goals per 90 would stand Pedro in good stead for the 20-goal landmark given how integral he looks to be to Fabian Hürzeler’s setup. We’re expecting the former Watford forward to play over 3,000 minutes if he stays fit.
These odds are very reasonable on an each-way wager. Brighton’s attack has created chances against Arsenal and Manchester United. Hürzeler is building his frontline around Pedro, who is a threat on an off-ball, ranking in the 94th percentile among forwards for touches in the attacking penalty area, and the 90th percentile for progressive passes received.
If you’re high on Brighton this season, which it’s hard not to be after three matchdays, a Pedro each-way wager for the Golden Boot makes a lot of sense. Outside of Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah, the Premier League is short on sure-fire Golden Boot contenders. Ollie Watkins massively overachieved his underlying numbers last season, and it remains to be seen how Dominic Solanke will fare at Tottenham.