Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Chelsea vs Aston Villa
- Under 3.5 total goals with odds of @1.62 on 10bet, equating to a 61.9% implied probability.
- Chelsea to win and both teams to score with odds of @2.88 on 10bet, indicating a 34.8% implied probability.
- Noni Madueke to have over 2.5 shots with odds of @2.25 on 10bet, representing a 44.4% implied probability.
Chelsea are predicted to beat Aston Villa 2-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Chelsea host Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge on Sunday afternoon. Let’s take a look at their circumstances before providing some Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions.
Chelsea saw off Leicester last weekend to move one point behind Manchester City. Enzo Maresca's tenure has started strongly, with the Blues residing in third place ahead of this weekend’s fixtures.
Yet another injury to Reece James was a blow, but Chelsea have become accustomed to playing without the England international. Maresca’s unconventional defense has been effective, and they even got a solid performance out of the underachieving Enzo Ferandez last Saturday.
Aston Villa will have felt hard done by after their goalless draw with Juventus on Wednesday. It was another stellar showing from Unai Emery’s men, who have more Champions League points than Bayern Munich and Manchester City through five matchdays.
Emery’s side are on a six-match winless run across all competitions, however, with fatigue becoming a factor. They have only won one Premier League match, falling directly after a Champions League fixture.
Probable Lineups for Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Chelsea probable XI:
Sanchez; Fofana, Badiashille, Colwill, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo; Madueko, Palmer, Felix; Jackson.
Aston Villa probable XI:
Martinez; Cash, Carlos, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Bailey, Rogers, McGinn; Watkins.
Back The Under
Only two of Aston Villa’s last eight matches across all competitions have generated over 3.5 total goals. You have to go back to September and six Premier League matches for the last Chelsea league fixture to produce over 3.5 total goals.
It was a bit of a surprise to see the line set at 3.5 for this game. Short odds are available on the under as a result, but it still looks like a worthwhile bet given the goal trends of these two teams.
It’s very unlikely either team wins by multiple goals, so a 1-1 or 2-1 in either direction is the most likely outcome, which will cash this under.
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa Bet 1: Under 3.5 total goals @1.62 with 10bet
Home Win and No Clean Sheet
Chelsea and Villa have each seen both teams to score land in 75% of their league matches so far. Chelsea haven’t kept a league clean sheet since a win over West Ham in September.
Only two of Chelsea’s six wins in the league have been nil. Enzo Maresca’s team are middle of the table in expected goal difference allowed, but fourth in expected goals generated. Villa’s numbers are pretty mediocre at both ends of the pitch.
With Chelsea rotating heavily for the Conference League, the Blues’ first-choice players will have had more rest than Villa’s starters. Pair that with extra quality, and we’re expecting a home win here, but Villa should find the net against a weak Chelsea defense..
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa Bet 2: Chelsea to win and both teams to score @2.88 with 10bet
Madueke Keen To Shoot
Noni Madueke has started 11 of Chelsea’s 12 Premier League matches. He has had three or more shots in six of those fixtures, including three against Leicester last weekend and four against Arsenal in the final match before the international break.
Villa conceded four shots to Crystal Palace winger Ismaïla Sarr last weekend. In Villa’s four matches directly trailing Champions League fixtures, two other right-sided forwards have gone over this line.
Nico Jackson and Cole Palmer are going to be the focus of a lot of player props in Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions, but we think superior value lies elsewhere. Madueke is a guaranteed starter in the league, and he’s proven to be a consistent shot threat from the right flank.
- Chelsea vs Aston Villa Bet 3: Noni Madueke over 2.5 shots @2.25 with 10bet