According to our in-house projection model, which is powered by underlying data and previous performance, Arsenal (19.6%) and Liverpool (16.5%) are the two teams most likely to win the 2024/25 edition of the Champions League. Following the English duo are Real Madrid (15%), Manchester City (12.8%), and Bayern Munich (9.7%).
However, the bookies’ current Champions League betting offering lists Liverpool as the favourites with Man City, Barcelona, Arsenal and Bayern Munich as the leading five in the betting. Despite Arsenal’s lack of Champions League-winning experience and no previous trophies in the competition, could this finally be their season?
Champions League Outright Market | Betway Odds |
|---|---|
Champions League Winner |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Bookmakers Undervaluing Arsenal’s European Chances
With a 19.6% projection for Arsenal to win the Champions League, our projection model prices Arsenal at 5.10 or 41/10, comfortably ahead of Liverpool’s market-leading price. However, many bookmakers have the Gunners at around 7/1 or 8.00, which implies a 12.5% probability - significantly lower than how we see Arsenal’s chances.
Arsenal’s underlying data in the Champions League is less efficient than others. They are 11th for xG, 6th for xGA, and 7th overall in the Champions League group phase. Despite this, we are looking past those five games and considering current form and recent capabilities in England.
Achieving 89 points in a Premier League season (2023/24) is quite impressive. Pushing a well-rounded Manchester City squad to the limit in a 38-game campaign suggests they are equipped and ready to take on Europe. Arsenal have comprehensively beaten every team since the international break in November.
The quality of their performance and the ways they secured wins reflects the displays from last season. With the Gunners seemingly gaining confidence and laying the foundations to attack the second half of the season, now might be the best time to back them in the Champions League outright markets.
Form and Performance Boost Heading Into 2025
Arsenal’s price of 1.28 to beat Monaco at the Emirates shows the progress they have made under Mikel Arteta. His side effectively blend grit, brawn, and muscle, accompanied by attacking creativity, flair and expertise in and around the box. The Gunners’ strength from set pieces, particularly corners, offers an opportunity to capitalise on those challenging European away days or when facing a resolute low block in front of an energetic home crowd.
The high odds for a home win come as no surprise. Arsenal have lost just once in the Champions League this term - to Inter Milan at the San Siro. That’s not a setback - Inter Milan are the only team yet to concede a goal in the Champions League group phase this season. A penalty by Calhanoglu was the difference between the two sides in what was an even affair, and one Arsenal were unlucky not to win. They registered 20 shots compared to Inter’s seven, which was accompanied by Arsenal’s 1.80 xG to the Italians’ 1.19 xG.
Italy has proven to be a challenging destination for Arsenal, with Atalanta in Bergamo (0-0) the only other venue where Arteta’s squad have dropped points. Convincing wins over Sporting Lisbon (1-5), Shakhtar Donetsk (1-0), and PSG (2-0), especially considering PSG’s stature in the modern Champions League era, best explain the strength of the Gunners’ campaign on the continent.
The team can grind out wins, prove successful in an end-to-end shoot-out, and keep tough opponents away from their defensive third through Gabriel, Saliba, Calafiori and Co. As their form and winning mentality start to become apparent once again heading towards January in both the Premier League and the Champions League, is this the right time to back Arsenal to win the Champions League at 8.00?