AC Milan vs Genoa Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for AC Milan vs Genoa
- AC Milan to win and Under 3.5 Goals at odds of 2.15 on Betway, equating to a 46% chance of the Rossoneri winning a match with no more than three goals scored.
- AC Milan to win 1:0, 2:0 or 3:0 at odds of 2.62 on Betway, indicating a 38% chance of the hosts winning with one of these scorelines.
- AC Milan to keep a clean sheet at odds of 2.00 on Betway, representing a 50% chance for the hosts not to concede a goal.
AC Milan should be expected to beat Genoa with a 2-0 scoreline.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Amid a challenging season, AC Milan sit nine points behind fourth place in the Serie A table. Meanwhile, Genoa are revitalized under the management of Patrick Vieira, and aim to solidify their position above the relegation zone.
On Wednesday, the Rossoneri needed a late goal from Tammy Abraham to edge past Red Star Belgrade in the Champions League. However, their league form has been shaky, with just one win in their last four games.
The visitors are unbeaten in five matches and hold a three-point lead over Verona, who currently occupy the 18th position.
Probable Lineups for AC Milan vs Genoa
The probable lineup for AC Milan in the "system of play."
Maignan; Emerson Royal, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham.
The probable lineup for Genoa in the "system of play."
Leali; Bani, Vasquez, Martin; Zanoli, Frendrup, Badelj, Miretti, Thorsby; Pinamonti, Vitinha.
A Routine Win for the Rossoneri?
The Rossoneri’s strong home record of seven wins, two draws, and two defeats - against Liverpool and Napoli - suggests they are unlikely to drop more points at the San Siro.
However, last weekend’s poor display against Atalanta, especially their inability to register a shot on target in the second half, has raised concerns.
The task is clear for Milan's boss, Paulo Fonseca: stabilize a side that have fluctuated between sublime form, as seen in victories over Inter Milan and Real Madrid, and inconsistent performances.
The Portuguese manager’s tactical expertise in handling rotations, especially with both Christian Pulisic and Alvaro Morata absent, will once again be under scrutiny.
With Milan heavy favourites to win and the total goals expected to be under three (2.96), betting on a victory for the hosts in a relatively low-scoring game could significantly boost your odds.
- AC Milan vs Genoa Bet 1: AC to win and Under 3.5 Goals with odds of 2.15 on Betway
Vieira's Toughest Test Yet
Averaging 54.5% ball possession compared to Genoa’s 43%, AC Milan are expected to dictate play, along with a higher shots-per-game ratio (14.1 vs 11.3).
Genoa's resilience will be thoroughly tested on Sunday night, as they aim to disrupt the hosts’ rhythm.
Vieira will likely rely on the defensive stability that has underpinned their recent form, having kept back-to-back clean sheets for the first time this season.
Scoring continues to be a major challenge for Il Grifone. They have managed just 13 goals this season, partly due to long-term injuries of key players like Junior Messias, Ruslan Malinovsky and Caleb Ekuban.
Yet, by securing three wins, Genoa have shown their potential away from home and proved they can be competitive.
However, our in-house projection tools, analysed ahead of these AC Milan vs Genoa predictions, give the Rossoneri a 71% chance of winning. This makes Genoa the second-biggest underdog of the matchday, after Venezia.
- AC Milan vs Genoa Bet 2: AC Milan to win 1:0, 2:0 or 3:0 with odds of 2.62 on Betway
AC Milan to Lock Out Genoa
With four victories and one draw in their last five encounters, the head-to-head record strongly favors the hosts.
AC Milan have lost just one of their previous 13 home games against Genoa, but the most recent match at the San Siro ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw.
Paulo Fonseca’s men have scored at least two goals in eight of the last 10 league games against the visitors, and 71% of their Serie A games have produced at least three goals so far.
However, AC Milan’s defense has generally shown weaknesses on the road. The Rossoneri have kept a clean sheet in five of their seven home games this campaign and boast the second-best home defence for both goals conceded (4) and xGA (expected goals against) of 4.29.
The last time they had a better record after eight home matches was in the 2002/2003 season, which is something to take into account when making AC Milan vs Genoa predictions.
- AC Milan vs Genoa Bet 3: AC Milan to keep a clean sheet with odds of 2.00 on Betway