Ecuador will take on Senegal in the third World Cup Group A match on Tuesday, Nov. 29.
This game has huge implications. The winner will secure a berth in the knockout stage with a chance to even win the group.
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Ecuador can advance with a draw because of their 1-1 result against Netherlands. Senegal lost their opener against the Oranje, so they need a win to qualify.
Let's unpack this game to find the best bets and props for this Group A clash between Ecuador and Senegal.
Ecuador vs Senegal Current Odds
- 3-Way Handicap: Ecuador (+145) | Draw (+210) | Senegal (+210)
- Draw No Bet: Ecuador (-152) | Senegal (+110)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-182)
Ecuador vs Senegal odds are current as of Monday, Nov. 28, from BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Ecuador are slight favorites in this match because of their strong play throughout the tournament so far. They were able to beat Qatar 2-0 while drawing Netherlands 1-1.
The Draw is priced the same as Senegal to win, giving us some value on the latter. The Lions of Teranga need a win, so they won't be content with a draw here.
The total is juiced toward the Under, giving us some value on the Over because Senegal will push forward for goals in this match.
Ecuador vs Senegal Prediction
Ecuador 2-1 Senegal
We can look to the Ecuador-Netherlands game to help us see how well La Tri has played. Ecuador had 15 shot attempts (four on target), 18 crosses, and five corners in that match.
That adds up to approximately 1.69 expected goals. Meanwhile, Netherlands only had 0.07 expected goals, so Ecuador deserved better there.
Let's compare that to Senegal's performance against the Oranje, where Senegal had 0.78 expected goals compared to 1.11 for Netherlands.
Add in the fact that this team continues to play without star winger Sadio Mane and you see that Ecuador has the advantage in this one.
While Ecuador only need a draw, they should have their fair share of scoring chances with Senegal pushing for the win. Look for Ecuador to take care of business here.
Ecuador vs Senegal Betting Tips
- Ecuador has 2.85 expected goals scored and 0.42 expected goals allowed in this tournament.
- Senegal has 2.14 expected goals scored and 2.03 expected goals against.
- Ecuador only needs a draw to advance, while Senegal requires a win.
Ecuador vs Senegal Best Bets
➕ Both Teams to Score: Yes (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
We're getting terrific value on Both Teams to Score. Senegal needs three points, so they'll be pushing forward for goals.
If Senegal can take the lead, that would force Ecuador into attack mode because a loss would likely eliminate them from the tournament.
While I like Ecuador to win this match, I believe targeting this prop is the safer play while still maintaining some value.
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