'Sometimes maybe good, sometimes...' - USMNT can beat anyone, so why do they fall apart in big games?

The vibes after the U.S.'s November window were excellent. And they had every right to be. The U.S. impressed across two games against solid South American opponents. They beat a nearly full-strength Paraguay, 2-1. Three days later, they battered a nowhere near full-strength Uruguay, 5-1.

Neither game was perfect, but there were certainly positive takeaways. Gio Reyna, for one, made an impact. Folarin Balogun looked good. Strong showings from Sebastian Berhalter, Cristian Roldan, and even Tanner Tessmann showed that the U.S. midfield runs deeper than just Tyler Adams. Even better was the fact that Mauricio Pochettino made nine changes between the two fixtures - without seeing a decline in performance.

"Nine changes, but [we kept] the ideas, the philosophy, the faith, the fight, the togetherness,” Pochettino said after the Uruguay win. “All the bench players were supporting the starting 11. That connection is amazing, it’s what we wanted.”

These are the things that good international teams do. Pochettino made it his intent from early on to establish a strong player pool that he could dip into. It raised a few eyebrows when he called up a slew of MLS players that seemed like USMNT outsiders - on the best of days. But being able to go 20-plus players deep in international fixtures - and still win - is nothing to be sniffed at.

These are the sort of wins that coaches love. Pochettino turned to his backups and saw his system get the best out of them. Sure, competition for World Cup spots should be kept alive for as long as possible. Everyone should get a chance - if only as an act of symbolism to prove that no single place in the side is guaranteed. But there were names not present who will surely be in the picture come June, and a fair few simply in there to fill a gap. The U.S. won without them.

Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, and Antonee Robinson were all absent. In effect, the U.S. won two high-level friendlies with less than half of a first-choice XI available. There are, of course, two ways of looking at that. The first is that there should be a sense of concern that some of the U.S.'s best players have had little time to establish a connection on the pitch. But the second, and far more rational, is the fact that there is a system forming that got a result - regardless of who was on the pitch.

Pochettino had toyed around with this U.S. unit for a year or so before eventually settling on a 3-4-2-1 of sorts. Over a small sample size - effectively four and a half friendlies - it proved to be the one that struck the best balance out of his team. And that would make sense. The U.S. are heavy on center backs, stacked at striker, but lacking in natural wingers. Playing with two No.10s, two hard-working midfielders, and a trio of physical, disciplined central defenders proved an ideal mix. Figuring that out in November, with just one additional window before a World Cup, seems a little late. But it's not nothing.

So, zoom out, and the results look good. The USMNT are unbeaten in five. They have won four of those, and played a good Ecuador side about even. All five have come at home, and the U.S. conceded just four goals in that stretch.

Yet those, it must be pointed out, were in low-stakes friendlies. These games are slower. Mistakes are not only allowed but also expected. There is no frenetic energy to be found here. It is clear, at times, that the players themselves are beta testing a bit. Sure, everyone is fighting for the jersey - and Pochettino has revived a certain spirit - but these are still footballers who have one eye on returning to their club fully fit.

In the fixtures that truly count, Pochettino's record has been far more concerning. Across seven competitive matchups, Pochettino's record reads: Four wins, three losses, and one draw (admittedly, the sole tie was followed by a penalty shootout win). But look deeper, and far more concerning. Those four wins came in the Gold Cup. Only two of the teams they beat qualified for the World Cup. Two of the three losses came against opponents of similar strength - Canada and Mexico. And the third was against a far inferior team.

It all started in the Nations League finals back in March 2025. The U.S. were toothless against a well-drilled Panama side, and lost in the semifinal to a 94th-minute goal, scored by a 33-year-old striker, Cecilio Waterman, from the Chilean League. They followed that up with a 2-1 defeat to Canada in the third-place match, a scoreline that admittedly flattered the U.S., who managed just two shots on goal in the 90 minutes. The Gold Cup brought a perfect group stage, two shaky knockout wins, and then a 2-1 loss to Mexico in the final. The reality is, the U.S. have been poor when something material is on the line.

Figuring out why that happens is complex. Certainly, there's an element of inexperience here. The Gold Cup roster lacked star power. The Nations League finals team still felt like the roster of old, repurposed a little in a 4-2-3-1 system that was frigteningly vulnerable on the counterattack. More basically, the U.S. were young. Only four nations took younger teams to the Gold Cup. Eighteen of the 26 players had fewer than 20 caps. Seven of them had never appeared for the national team at all.

There is no way to solve that problem other than by playing through it. Experience cannot be taught or molded. You either have it or you don't.

Some of the former national team players have fallen back on lazy arguments around "fight", "wanting it more", and "playing for the badge." And there were the standard statistics thrown around about distance covered and tackles completed. Moments of blown assignments on set pieces, or perhaps failing to chase down a loose ball, were clipped up and did the rounds on social media.

Maybe trying harder isn’t the solution. This isn’t about effort - it’s about control, and the U.S. have too often lost it when it matters most. Pochettino’s tactics likely went beyond, “Boys, have you thought about running more?”

A more astute reading of the situation was that the opposite was true. The moment got a little too big. The inexperience showed. Cool heads needed to prevail, and there simply weren't enough of them on the pitch. In those losses, things were a little bit too frantic. The U.S., instead of wanting to speed up, needed to slow down.

What happened, then, was a group of relatively young players feeling the pressure of the moment and letting their performances spiral out of control. Mexico were older - led by veterans like Raul Jimenez and Edson Alvarez - and simply knew how to win a final. Panama were packed full of savvy veterans who had beaten the U.S. a year before at the Copa America. Meanwhile, that Canada loss was nothing short of an underperformance from a rotated side. That game was almost too emotional, a scrappy, frenetic thing that encapsulates this team at its worst: inexperienced and lacking in direction.

So, this is a question of mentality, calmness, and a little man management. It's about experiencing high level soccer and knowing how to navigate it. The good news? These friendlies are about as competitive as it gets without actually counting for something. This is the must-win bit that won't lead to a World Cup exit.

If the exhibition fixtures at the end of 2025 were important for fine-tuning and upping the vibes, then these are about putting it all together. There are no real experiments this time. This is, roughly, a full-strength USMNT. Weston McKennie has returned from exile. Christian Pulisic is back. Gio Reyna, despite playing just 21 minutes of football for his club this year, is in the picture - mostly based on the fact that he is a game-changing talent. Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest are out due to injury, but everyone else is here. This is a roster that suggests that Pochettino knows exactly what he wants out of his team this summer.

The same goes for the opponents. Portugal are without Cristiano Ronaldo, but otherwise have picked their best possible squad. It wouldn't be an immense surprise if they won the World Cup at full strength. Belgium are not the power they used to be, but they, too, have brought a strong team to the States for a duo of friendlies later this week.

So, this is where the friendlies start to matter. The U.S. can no longer point towards system tweaks or turning in a decent effort. Both opponents will expect to be playing in a quarterfinal come July. Pochettino has his system and, basically, his starters. It's about results. Sure, Pochettino has insisted that competition is still open. But any late surprises here are unlikely to be anything more than bench options this summer.

It's easy to see the U.S. winning both games, putting in strong performances against elite teams, and giving the nation hope. But it's equally possible that they could fail to rise to the occasion - and kill all momentum ahead of the World Cup.

Sometimes, maybe good.

Sometimes, maybe sh*t.