We’re heading to campus for an AAC matchup where the Golden Hurricanes and Pirates both desperately need a win. On TNF, the Bengals are looking to pull the upset tonight against the first-place Steelers, looking to take care of business on the road.
East Carolina is a massive favorite (-17) at home against Tulsa, and this one could get ugly early. Speaking of getting ugly, Cincy is facing Pittsburgh with a QB they signed nine days ago.
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I’m on East Carolina (-17) tonight against Tulsa, and I’ve got all the statistical prowess to back it up.
The Pirates have faced much better competition throughout the season, with seven-point losses on the road to NC State and Tulane, while hanging close with BYU before letting it slip away late. As home favorites, though, ECU is 3-0 ATS with a 24-point winning margin in those games.
Meanwhile, Tulsa is just a bad football team. They did have a brief moment of glory in winning at Oklahoma State earlier this season, but now that win seems much less glamorous given how the Cowboys’ season has gone.
One key area of differential are the defenses, is allowing the 15th-fewest PPG (15.5) in the nation, while Tulsa ranks 110th (26.3).
Let us turn our attention to the pro game, where we have a standalone Thursday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and the Bengals. It’s all about the Black and Yellow tonight, mainly because the Bengals just signed old man Joe Flacco nine days ago!
It’s a terrible spot for Flacco, who already had to start on Sunday against the Packers but now faces a monumental challenge of preparing for the Steelers with only three days alongside his new team.
Based on how I believe the game will shape out, Cincy may need to rely on the passing game late. Noah Fant has been a familiar target for Bengals’ QBs this season, with at least 26+ receiving yards in every game. FanDuel has this number set at 28.5, and the Steelers have allowed eight different tight ends to post 28+ receiving yards in five games.
For the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf are the guys to target tonight. I like Rodgers to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125) and Metcalf getting 60+ yards (-115). The Bengals are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (258.5), and both players are licking their chops ahead of this matchup.
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