How Thomas Muller, USMNT standouts Sebastian Berhalter, Brian White and Tristan Blackmon, and head coach Jesper Sørensen turned the Vancouver Whitecaps into improbable MLS contenders

There’s always an element of luck in an MLS regular season. Teams can ride a hot start, stay afloat for months, and then fall apart when the playoffs begin. St. Louis City SC in 2023 is the textbook example - an expansion team that stunned the Western Conference but whose underlying numbers raised doubts, which were confirmed when they collapsed in the first round.

The Whitecaps have been nothing like that. Their metrics back up the eye test. They scored a conference-best 66 goals, conceded a conference-low 38, and lost fewer matches than anyone in the West. Even their draws came in useful stretches. In short, this was a team that earned its results, not one carried by momentum or good fortune.

The underlying numbers are good - and generally reliable. Their 66 goals came on 63.1 xG, suggesting that they, like many teams that are deadly in front of goal, slightly overperformed their mark (a discrepancy of 2.9 tends to be a sign of clinical finishing rather than pure luck). And they were equally effective at the other end. Their xG conceded was 37.3. They allowed 38 goals.

Piece it all together, and Vancouver were a very good team performing exactly how the statistics project they really should.

There were early hints the Whitecaps might be good. They opened the MLS season well and climbed to the top of the Western Conference within two months. That raised eyebrows - not least because Sørensen was a relative unknown when he was hired in mid-January. But the MLS regular season is inherently chaotic. Hot starts happen. And even with Brian White scoring regularly, there was a suspicion that Vancouver could still regress to the mean.

What they needed was a signature run, something to prove they were more than a fast starter. Enter the CONCACAF Champions Cup, the perfect proving ground for MLS clubs. Historically, teams from the league have struggled - especially in Mexico - feeding the perception that MLS sides simply can’t win there. Vancouver shattered that narrative, earning two away-goal wins in the knockouts to reach a semifinal showdown with Inter Miami.

And at that point, the magic should’ve ended. This was Lionel Messi in knockout football, after all. Thanks for the memories - time for the big boys to take over.

Except…

They hosted the first leg at BC Place and stunned a full-strength Miami with a 2-0 win. Then they went to Chase Stadium and did it again, a 3-1 triumph to complete an unthinkable 5-1 aggregate rout of MLS’s best. The enchantment eventually faded - Cruz Azul, deeper and more battle-hardened, thrashed them in the final - but even that result felt surprising.

And maybe that’s the biggest compliment you can give this Whitecaps team.

The through line in this Whitecaps side is a general sense of money well spent. The Whitecaps have never been flush with cash, and have, arguably, not had a singular star player since Alphonso Davies left nearly a decade ago (and even then, he was very much a man on the rise). They have consistently been a bottom 10 spender in MLS, and have been - until recently - unable to lure any big stars to the BC Palace. 

But to say they have been expert navigators would be inaccurate, too. They are, instead, remarkably agreeable in their business. Until now. The loss of Ryan Guald - their star man and highest earner - to a long term injury really should have derailed their campaign. Instead, the system became the star, with plenty of strong individual talents throughout. White was a surprise early Golden Boot contender and earned a well-deserved USMNT call up for doing so. Tristan Blackmon certainly has his critics, but was good value for his nod for the U.S. in September, too.

And then, we have Sebastian Berhalter. As the story goes, the son of former U.S. manager Gregg was uncertain that he even wanted to play soccer just a few years ago. Now, he is one of Pochettino's favorites, a set-piece specialist with a wonderful engine in the middle of the park. 

There was no way Thomas Muller should have gone to Vancouver. Stars don't do that. They go to Los Angeles, New York, Miami, or Chicago. Vancouver is a truly lovely city, but it is not a spot that can lure European stars, not ones that have won World Cups, multiple Champions Leagues, and 13 Bundesliga titles. 

Except this time, they did. Muller supposedly flirted with Chicago for some time, but was sold on Vancouver. He has turned out to be the perfect midseason boost. The Whitecaps were good - very good - but championship sides tend to need a lift, especially in the slog of the MLS season. And so Muller arrived to immense fanfare. 

He was greeted by droves of fans at the Vancouver airport, and quickly brought his trademark brand of soccer to Canada’s West Coast. Muller has done what he does best - drifting into pockets of space, making the right runs, picking the right passes, and providing a cutting edge in the final third. His quality has anchored the attack while White worked his way back from a long-term hamstring injury.

And so we arrive at Saturday evening. The Whitecaps are wonderfully matched with San Diego. Both teams here really like playing football. San Diego are one of the best watches in MLS. Vancouver aren't bad either. The Whitecaps can certainly keep the ball out of the net, but their calling card is putting it in the other team's. The same can be said of San Diego, who possess a bona fide star in their own right in trendy MVP candidate Anders Dreyer. 

It must be acknowledged here that Miami are clear MLS Cup favorites. Messi is playing his best soccer in MLS thus far, and the Herons have gotten hot at the right time. Vancouver still have to beat San Diego, too. But they already have one trophy under their belt in the Canadian Championship, and showed a crucial sort of resiliency to beat Son Heung-Min's LAFC. 

But Muller is a winner. Vancouver are a well-constructed side. And in the world of narrative building, this wouldn't be a bad result, either.