Can Emma Hayes' 'Last Dance' at Chelsea still be a success without injured Sam Kerr?

There’s no doubt that Chelsea have one of the strongest squads in the women’s game. After all, they’re top of the WSL table as the second half of the season begins despite being without captain Millie Bright and star winger Guro Reiten for significant periods, while Fran Kirby still builds her way back to her best.

But to cover for Kerr’s absence is going to be a new challenge altogether. We’re talking about a world-class forward, the type that can win a game for her team almost single-handedly, and Chelsea’s most reliable source of goals. The Blues might have players who can fit into the No.9 role in her absence, but none are of the calibre of Kerr. In truth, very few players on the planet are.

And that’s before we even get to Kerr as a person. Her winning mentality, her bubbly personality and leadership are all to be missing on the pitch for Chelsea for the foreseeable. It’s hard to put into words just how big a blow this is.

This news is more than just the fact Kerr will miss the rest of Chelsea’s season, too. There is a genuine possibility that we’ve seen her in the club’s colours for the final time, with her contract in London set to expire at the end of the campaign. News that Kristie Mewis, the USWNT star who is also Kerr’s fiancée, has signed a deal with West Ham reported to be 18 months in length has given Chelsea fans hope that their star striker will be extending her own stay in the capital, but until there is a contract signed then everything is speculation.

It would be a cruel way for this chapter of her career to end; for her time under Hayes to end; for her time alongside players such as Kirby and Reiten, whom she has formed such wonderful connections with, to end.

There is also the international side of this and that is just as big. This injury all-but-ends Kerr’s chances of participating in the Olympic women’s football tournament in France this summer, which is an incredible disappointment for her and the Matildas. Australia were so close to claiming a medal at the Games in Japan in 2021, but fell just short in the bronze-medal match, losing a thriller with the U.S. by a 4-3 scoreline.

The 30-year-old missed most of the Matildas’ home World Cup last year and they still reached the semi-finals, which was a positive for a team that has sometimes over-relied on their superstar striker, but she was still there in the squad, having an influence around the camp. That will not be the case in France, and head coach Tony Gustavsson will have to not only find a way to play without Kerr in the build-up to the tournament, he’ll also have to ensure he picks a squad capable of coping with her absence after drawing criticism for the under-use of several players last year.

Refocusing on the short-term, let’s take a look at the replacements for Kerr in the Chelsea squad right now. First up is Mia Fishel, who Hayes recruited in the summer as a back-up for the Aussie. Those were Fishel’s exact words, even, in an interview with the Evening Standard ahead of this season. “[Kerr] had to play a lot of minutes and she didn’t have another person to come in when she needed it,” Fishel said. “For the team to be better, I needed to come in to help Sam Kerr when she doesn’t need to be in the game. That [means] a big role.”

But it’s one thing to come in for a game or two, for 20 minutes off the bench when Kerr needs a rest, and another thing altogether to start week in, week out as the No.9 for a team with ambitions of winning four trophies. Fishel is a really exciting prospect and she’s shown fantastic glimpses of what she can do at the top level in the last few months. But she is still only 22 years old and in just her first season at a club like Chelsea.

In a similar position is Aggie Beever-Jones, another youngster who has done great things as a rotational player this season. The 20-year-old academy product has five goals in seven WSL appearances, and though often seen as a winger, she can play through the middle, too, and is another option for cover.

Meanwhile, Catarina Macario seems to be nearing a return from injury. Signed from Lyon last summer while still recovering from her own ACL rupture, the USWNT star is a generational talent and can play in a number of different roles, including as a No.9. But we’re talking about a player who hasn’t kicked a ball for over 18 months. Regardless of her talent, it’d be ridiculous to put the pressure on Macario to fill Kerr’s boots right away.

So, with there reasons why each of the centre-forward options at the club are not ready to absorb all of Kerr’s goal-scoring burden, do Chelsea need to dip into the January transfer window? One would think they’d certainly take a look – but it’s well-known that the winter window can be a horrible one to work in.

Chelsea have little-to-no chance of picking up a world-class No.9 mid-season, as players of such calibre just aren’t available this time of year, unless an unlikely opportunity presents itself in the U.S. market, for example.

It’s worth noting that Chelsea do not do much knee-jerk business, either. While they might want someone to help fill the boots of Kerr, they’re a club that so often plans for the long-term, and so they would likely need to find a player that fits their vision for the future, not just for the next six months.

Instead, it’s much more likely that they bring in a forward who, like Fishel and Beever-Jones, can share some of the goal-scoring while also presenting long-term value and the potential to develop into a top-level player over time. But, again, that’s if they find a profile that they like for a deal they believe is worthwhile in this short window.

If that doesn’t happen, Chelsea have still got the players throughout the squad to maintain a title charge, there’s no doubt. With the creativity of players like Kirby and Reiten, never mind the goals they are capable of as well, there are always going to be chances created, and there is enough talent to put plenty of them in the back of the net.

The questions will instead centre around those big moments and big games. Kerr always talks about how Wembley is her favourite stadium because she always scores and she always wins under the arch. There isn’t another goal-scorer with that mentality in the squad. If Chelsea are locked in a tight battle with a title rival, do they have a striker with the ice in their veins to take the one chance that might fall to them?

Perhaps, instead of replacing Kerr, Chelsea will need to change how they operate altogether when those big moments and those big games come along. We saw it last season when Hayes changed Kerr’s role in the absences of both Kirby and Pernille Harder. The Australian had to become more of a target forward, and while her output was impacted in terms of the frequency of her goals, she still popped up in the biggest moments to score and help the team win titles.

This time, it may be about changing Kirby’s role, Reiten’s role, Lauren James’ role and so on. Can Chelsea adapt to play without a recognised centre-forward, while still having the options of players like Fishel and Beever-Jones from the bench? Is there someone who might excel as a false nine?

Hayes and her team showed incredible adaptability last season when injuries hit and that played a significant part in them clinching a fourth successive WSL title. The same traits, in different circumstances, will be needed if they want to make it five in a row as they also eye up success in the FA Cup, Conti Cup and the Champions League.

We will get our first look at life for Chelsea without Kerr this weekend, when the Blues take on West Ham for a place in the FA Cup fifth round. It’s unlikely that we will see radical changes to the system and playing style in this match because one would say that the reigning English champions should have too much for their opponents, even without Kerr.

Instead, it’ll probably be Fishel or Beever-Jones leading the line and stepping up to deliver in the Aussie’s absence to show the role they can play as Chelsea begin what is now going to be an extremely difficult second half of the season.

For the past four years, Chelsea have so often found a way to win and, on so many occasions, a contribution from Kerr has been key in determining the difference between disappointment and success. Now, this winning machine needs to find a way without one of its most integral cogs.

Hayes’ time at the club might nearly be over, but as those 12 years prepare to come to an end, she’s about to face one of her toughest conundrums yet.