Could Italy really miss ANOTHER World Cup? Gennaro Gattuso's men set for decisive double-header against Estonia and Israel as the Azzurri face failing to qualify for a third consecutive finals

Despite the fact that Italy hadn't sat out a World Cup since 1958, the play-off loss to Sweden in November 2017 didn't actually come as that much of a surprise, given how badly the team had been performing under the hopelessly out-of-his-depth Gian Piero Ventura.

However, the failure to make it to Qatar 2022 sent shockwaves through the peninsula. Roberto Mancini's Azzurri were the reigning European champions and would have won their group had it not been for shocking levels of profligacy before suffering an even more ignominious play-off defeat - this time at home to North Macedonia.

Mancini was allowed to continue as coach - not least because it was clear that Italian football's problems extended far beyond the coach - but then the former attacking midfielder sensationally quit in August 2023, midway through the country's qualification campaign for the Euro 2024.

Luciano Spalletti was parachuted in as his successor - just three months after leading Napoli to a first Scudetto since 1990 - and ensured that Italy would get the chance to retain their continental crown in Germany the following summer.

It quickly became clear, though, that the Azzurri were the weakest defending champions the Euros had seen since Greece in 2008.

Italy began their campaign with an uninspiring 2-1 win over Albania but then suffered arguably the most one-sided 1-0 loss in the history of football against Spain. In the end, they needed a 98th-minute equaliser against Croatia just to sneak into the knockout stage - and, in hindsight, probably wished they hadn't, as Spalletti's side were immediately dismantled with embarrassing ease by Switzerland in a 2-0 defeat in Berlin.

Nonetheless, the general feeling was that with more time to implement his footballing philosophy, Spalletti would turn Italy back into a top team. However, an abysmal 3-0 loss to Norway in the opening 2026 World Cup qualifier put paid to those hopes.

It's actually difficult to articulate just how poorly Italy performed in Oslo on June 6. Indeed, Donnarumma admitted, "I have no words... All I can say is that our fans don't deserve this, and we have to find strength from somewhere, because we're Italy and these types of matches are not acceptable." Spalletti unsurprisingly concurred. "We need to find something more," he conceded. "Otherwise, something has got to change." Inevitably, that something was the coach, who had made a succession of strange selection decisions and proven incapable of forming a strong bond with the players.

Still, while the decision taken by Italian Football Federation (FIGC) president Gabriele Gravina to sack Spalletti after the Norway debacle was not in the least bit surprising; the fact that that he was still allowed to take charge of the game against Moldova three days later was staggering - and yet entirely in keeping with the FIGC's bizarre approach to governance.

Luckily, Italy managed to eke out a predictably unimpressive 2-0 win in Spalletti's final game at the helm but Gravina still had a major problem to solve - because there weren't a lot of obvious potential successors. Claudi Ranieri was the popular choice but the beloved Premier League champion refused to go back on his decision to take up an advisory role at hometown club Roma after calling time on his coaching career at the end of the 2024-25 season, while Scudetto winner Stefano Pioli preferred to take charge of Fiorentina instead.

As a result, the FIGC warmed to the idea of trying to tap into the spirit of 2006 by hiring a member of Marcello Lippi's World Cup winners. Daniele De Rossi and Fabio Cannavaro were both considered but Gravina instead opted for Gattuso.

A ferocious midfielder that picked up the nickname 'Ringhio' ('Growl') during his playing days, Gattuso was proving just as combustible as a coach, with many of his managerial meltdowns going viral. He'd also only won one trophy since hanging up his boots (the 2019-20 Coppa Italia with Napoli) and wasn't exactly revered for his tactical acumen.

Gravina, though, was absolutely adamant that Gattuso was precisely the right kind of man for the job.

"He has the qualities, the determination and above all the desire to achieve something great for the Azzurri and our country," the FIGC supremo said on June 19. "The National Team needs him and Gattuso answered the Azzurri’s call without hesitation. He responded with the same enthusiasm he showed when he was called up as a player.

"I wouldn't make the mistake of reducing his commitment to mere enthusiasm, though. There’s much more to it. A great spirit of sacrifice, tremendous professionalism and an extraordinary level of preparation. What struck me from the very beginning was his willingness to put 'us' ahead of 'I'.

"But we are confident of Rino's technical qualities. There is concrete evidence of his abilities, and I am convinced he will be a man of results. He knows Italian football very well, including the players’ mentality and the pressure from the media, having experienced intense environments such as Napoli and Milan. Personally, I have always appreciated his work with young players.

"He immediately wanted to send very clear messages, overflowing with enthusiasm. He told me right away that nobody wins alone. We win together, we go to the World Cup together."

However, Italy's qualification hopes remain on a knife-edge going into the crucial double-header against Estonia and Israel.

The start of Gattuso's tenure has been predictably dramatic. Metaphorical and literal "slaps" were dished out before his first game against Estonia in Bergamo on September 5, which ended in a 5-0 win for the Azzurri that lifted the spirits of everyone within the camp.

"I think these goals come from our hunger and determination, quite aside from our technical quality," centre-back Alessandro Bastoni told Sky Sport Italia. "The fact is, we've always had quality, but we have to take responsibility and show it on the field.

"I never had Gattuso as a team-mate, but I can imagine what that was like. He gives us so much determination and grit, a fair few slaps too, which perhaps we needed to have a wake-up call. I think we needed that."

Remarkably, Italy would score another five goals in their second outing under Gattuso, only this time they would concede four too in what the Calabrese called the "craziest" game he'd ever been involved in.

"We were mad to systematically go on the attack at every opportunity, because that’s what Israel were waiting for, and they hit us on the counter every time. We should have defended deeper when leading," Gattuso told RAI 1.

"We’re a crazy team, because we are too fragile, we concede ridiculous goals too easily. The lads know that, but this is my problem, not theirs. They deserve credit for always reacting to every slap in the face.

"The mentality is the best part, as even though we weren’t having a great night, we showed heart and the desire to react. These have been eight incredible days and I thank the lads for their efforts, but if we want to do something important, we’ve got to improve."

Whether they can improve sufficiently to make it to the World Cup is very much open to debate.

As team manager Gigi Buffon admitted earlier this week, it's 90 percent certain that Italy will end up in the play-offs again. Although they have a game in hand on Norway, they trail Erling Haaland & Co. by six points and even if they were to eventually draw level with the undefeated the Scandinavians at the top of Group I, they would need a gargantuan swing in goal difference to take the automatic qualification spot.

As a result, the primary focus is on guaranteeing at least a play-off berth - and there is still some work to be done on that front, as they're only ahead of Israel on goal difference (albeit having played one match fewer).

On the plus side, a victory over Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday would likely put them in a position to secure a spot by beating Israel in Udine three days later.

As Gattuso pointed out as delicately as he could, though, there are likely to be more Italians outside the Stadio Friuli protesting the genocide in Gaza than actually inside the arena.

"It's a fact that we cannot deny: we're going to Udine and there will be very few people in the stands. And I understand that, I understand the worry," Gattuso told reporters.

"We also know that we have to play; otherwise we’ll be given an automatic 3-0 defeat. It pains the heart to see what is happening [in Gaza] and we obviously would have preferred a different atmosphere around this game."

From a purely sporting perspective, Italy are in reasonably good shape ahead of their must-win meeting with Estonia. 

Matteo Politano misses out through injury but the likes of Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Barella and Sandro Tonali are all in good condition - and form - and while Moise Kean is struggling for goals in Serie A, the Fiorentina forward's productive partnership with Mateo Retegui was one of the big success stories of the September internationals.

Legitimate doubts remain over the solidity of Gattuso's preferred four-man defence - there have been some calls for a return to a back three - but Donnarumma, at least, has made a positive start to his Manchester City career. His shot-stopping skills are likely to prove key to Italy's qualification bid - particularly in the play-offs, where they're likely to face stronger sides than Israel standing in their way.

Of course, Donnarumma's qualities as a captain are also going to come under intense scrutiny in the coming days, so the last thing he wants is to become the first Italian to be involved in three unsuccessful attempts to qualify for a World Cup.

"We must give our all to write new pages in the history books," the giant goalkeeper said at the Museo del Calcio on Wednesday, "and we hope to write many of them along with our new coach."

One can be sure, though, that Gattuso isn't even thinking about another World Cup right now. Just qualifying would represent a significant achievement for the Azzurri in their current predicament.