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Japan vs Spain Predictions: World Cup Group Stage Odds & Best Bets

10:30 EAT 30/11/2022
Khalifa International Stadium FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
A draw would likely see both teams qualify for the knockout stages but there should be interest in backing a high scoring game

Japan will look to qualify for the Round of 16 for the second consecutive World Cup with a result against Spain on Monday, Dec. 1.

This will be the final match of the group stage for Group E and the result will surely have implications on which countries advance to the next round. The match will take place at Khalifa International Stadium.

  • Looking to wager on sports? Head to The Game Day for the latest sports betting odds.

Group E has proven to be one of, if not the most competitive group in the World Cup. Heading into Matchday 3, all four teams in the group still have the opportunity to advance. Spain appeared to be the runaway favorites to win the group after a 7-0 victory over Costa Rica, however, after a draw to Germany in its last game, there is a scenario in which the Spanish side fails to advance at all.

For Japan, a 2-1 upset over Germany to open the tournament appeared to have Hajime Moriyasu’s squad primed for qualification. Unfortunately, a late goal by Costa Rica’s Keysher Fuller in Japan’s last game could be the main reason why the East Asian side does not make it past the group stage.

While one point from a draw might be enough for Japan to make it through, a win and three points will solidify their spot in the Round of 16.

Japan vs Spain Odds

  • 3-way handicap: Japan (+700) | Draw (+375) | Spain (-250)
  • Draw No Bet: Japan (+500) |Spain (-900)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 ( -145) | Under 2.5 (+105)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100) | No (-135)

Japan vs Spain odds are current as of Nov. 28 at 9 p.m. ET, at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Spain will enter the match as heavy favorites, which should come as no surprise, judging by the form of Luis Enrique’s squad in the tournament thus far. While Ferran Torres and co. should demand respect, Japan finding a way to get a result out of this game isn’t out of the question.

With Japan already completing one upset in this tournament, taking the juiced odds in the 3-way handicap could be the long shot every bettor hopes to hit. For a safer play, Over 2.5 seems highly probable based on both teams' first two games of the tournament.

Japan vs Spain Betting Tips

  • Spain has eight goals in two World Cup games, leading the tournament.
  • Spain has done most of its damage in the final 45 minutes, averaging 2.5 goals in the second half.
  • Spain is one of 10 teams that has conceded one or fewer goals in the tournament.
  • Spain has the sixth-most shots on goal of the tournament with 10. Japan ranks 13th with seven.
  • Japan’s two goals both came against Germany.
  • Japan is averaging 13.5 shots per match with only 4.5 being on target.

Japan vs Spain Prediction

Japan 1-3 Spain

Many people counted out Japan after they were drawn into a group that consisted of two powerhouses in Germany and Spain. While the team has managed to exceed expectations just two games into the tournament, the “Cinderella story” run ends here.

Spain’s class has been second to none in the tournament, specifically in the midfield, where it has been notoriously strong for generations. The latest star to man the middle is 18-year-old Gavi, who has proven to be one of the best young players in the world. Additionally, Ferran Torres’ presence at the top of the pitch has been world-class.

Unfortunately for Japan, the 1-0 loss to Costa Rica is seemingly going to be a big reason for the country's elimination. The Samurai Blue were all but set to qualify after picking up three points in their first game, however, the late winner took all momentum from the Japanese side. Takuma Asano, and the rest of the Japanese attack must take their game to another level if they want any chance of obtaining a result in this match.

Even so, Spain’s defense has looked exceptionally strong, conceding just one goal in over 180 minutes of football. They could see their second clean sheet of the tournament in this match.

Japan vs Spain Best Bet

➕ Over/Under Total Goals 2nd Half: Over 1.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 3 Unit(s)

Both teams have done the brunt of their work in the second half over the first two games. Japan’s two goals in the tournament came at 75 minutes’ and 83 minutes, respectively. With their World Cup lives likely depending on the outcome of this game, you can expect the Japanese side to look to score until the final whistle is blown.

Spain’s second-half dominance has seen the Spanish side score five of its eight goals in the final 45 minutes. The team will surely adjust to Japan’s game plan and could cover the Over themselves.

➕ Double Chance and Total Goals: Tie or Spain and over 3.5 goals (+185) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit(s)

For a riskier play with juiced odds, taking Tie or Spain and Over 3.5 could prove profitable based on what we’ve seen in the tournament thus far.

While multiple Spain players have come out openly and said they will look to flat-out win the match, no one on the Spanish side would oppose a draw, especially seeing as it could help them avoid Brazil in the quarter-finals.

For this reason, Enrique’s squad could park the bus should their attack falter in this one. Regardless, your bases are covered with Spain unlikely to fall in this one. A high-scoring affair is all that is necessary to see this cash.