Lack Of European Football Makes Underdogs A Value Bet In Domestic Cups

As domestic cup competitions reach the quarter-final stages, the focus shifts to potential underdog victories in England, Italy and Germany.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

A Golden Opportunity

Newcastle United are an underdog in the League Cup, with odds of 7.00, reflecting a 14.3% chance of lifting the trophy at Wembley on March 16. 

Eddie Howe's team prepares for a challenging two-legged semi-final against Arsenal. The first leg kicks off at the Emirates in early January, with the return match scheduled for early February at St James' Park.

Since the away goals rule is no longer in effect, hosting the second leg on home turf offers Newcastle United a subtle advantage, especially considering their recent success against Arsenal in the Premier League. However, Newcastle's significant advantage lies in their absence from European competitions this season.

According to our in-house model, the Magpies have just a 4.8 percent chance of clinching a fourth-place finish in the Premier League. This allows them to focus their efforts on the League Cup, where they made it to the final in 2023. 

In contrast, Arsenal is dealing with a packed schedule. Not only do they need to navigate crucial Champions League fixtures at the end of January to cement their top-eight standing, but they’re also involved in the Premier League title race. 

Key matches before the semi-final first leg include a trip to Brighton and the North London Derby, while the league encounter with Manchester City is scheduled just days before the return leg in the north-east of England. 

Additionally, Arsenal will host Manchester United in the FA Cup third round on January 12, while Newcastle enjoys a considerably less challenging clash against League Two's Bromley.

Given Arsenal's hectic calendar, it is likely that several key players will be rested during the League Cup games, presenting Newcastle with a great opportunity. 

This dynamic extends to the other semi-finalists, Liverpool and Tottenham. Tottenham are currently languishing in ninth place in the Europa League and potentially facing a play-off in mid-February, which would only add to their players' fatigue and pressure.

The end of Italiano’s bad luck? 

In Italy, Bologna is an intriguing option in the Coppa Italia, standing behind Empoli, as the second biggest underdog, with odds of 17.00. The Felsinei are set to face Serie A leaders Atalanta in the quarter-finals—a daunting task on paper. However, there is a silver lining for Vincenzo Italiano's side.

Atalanta have key Champions League games against Sturm Graz and Barcelona, that are essential for their top-eight ambitions. In contrast, Bologna, 33rd in the Champions League, are all but out of the competition. This position allows them to rest key players against Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon, concentrating their efforts on the domestic cup. 

Adding to Atalanta's schedule is a trip to Saudi Arabia in early January for the Italian Super Cup, potentially adding an extra game to their already busy campaign. 

According to our in-house model, the Bergamaschi are projected to finish as runners-up in Serie A, behind Inter Milan. They have a 28.5% chance of claiming the title, meaning they are likely to remain focused on the title race until the final game of the season.

RB Leipzig and Werder intriguing paths

With Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund already out of contention, RB Leipzig and Stuttgart emerge as main candidates. They are positioned behind current titleholders Leverkusen, with odds of 3.75 and 4.50, respectively. RB Leipzig, now eliminated from the Champions League, can fully concentrate on domestic competitions. 

Projections indicate a third-place finish for them in the Bundesliga, making a DFB-Pokal victory a realistic target, particularly with heavyweights Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund already out of contention. 

Leipzig, who won the DFB-Pokal title for two seasons in a row, in 2022 and 2023, face Wolfsburg in a favourable home quarter-final at the end of February. However, it's worth noting they suffered a hefty 5-1 defeat to the very same opponent in a recent Bundesliga meeting.

Holders Bayer Leverkusen will face second-tier Koln at the start of February. Similar to top teams in England and Italy, they might find themselves distracted by the Champions League and domestic league campaigns. 

According to our in-house model, Stuttgart holds a 71.7 percent chance of advancing to the Champions League play-offs. To achieve this, they would need to win their final two games at the end of January, just before their quarter-final game against Augsburg in the DFB-Pokal.

For bettors seeking value, Werder Bremen could be a smart choice. With no involvement in European competitions, Bremen seems to have the easiest route in the tournament. They will travel to face Arminia, a third-division team currently sitting fourth in the standings.

Bologna are unbeaten in their last six fixtures and Werder have lost just once in their last seven outings across all competitions and have secured two 1-0 victories in the German cup thus far. 

With odds set at 15.00, they indeed present a long shot, but one that bettors might find worth considering.