Stats reveal that players coming off the bench are leaving their mark on the Premier League more than ever before. Moreover, substitutes have scored 41 of the season’s 314 total goals, accounting for a noticeable 13.05%—an uptick from the 12.76% total across the 2023/2024 season.
This rise in productivity is even more evident when considering assists, with substitutes involved in a hefty 80 goals so far this season, contributing to 25.47% of all Premier League goals.
Using this data and additional insights, we've selected the top matches to wager on for match day 12.
| Premier League Match Day 12 | Odds |
|---|---|
Bournemouth vs Brighton: 2nd Half Total Goals Over 1.5 | |
Southampton vs Liverpool: Liverpool To Score in Both Halves | |
Newcastle vs West Ham United: Half With Most Goals: Second Half |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Smart subs and second-halves surges
The team that has scored the most goals in the second half of games is Tottenham, leading the pack with 14. Chelsea follows with 11, while Liverpool, Brighton, Aston Villa, and Leicester City each tally ten.
Notably, Wolverhampton struggles defensively after the break, conceding 16 goals in this period - more than any other team.
But which clubs maximise their substitutes?
Nottingham Forest have impressively utilised 54 out of a possible 55 substitutions. However, their effectiveness remains limited, as substitutes average 19 minutes of playtime, contributing only 2.3 expected goals (XG) and 1.28 expected assists.
In contrast, Bournemouth’s substitutes have significantly outperformed relative to their limited time on pitch (also around 19 minutes), orchestrating 3.95 expected goals, 2.83 expected assists, and 29 scoring chances.
In terms of substitution efficacy, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, and Newcastle United emerge positive outliers.
Brighton’s substitutes have produced 2.87 expected goals and 1.83 expected assists despite being on the pitch only 18.15 minutes each on average.
Chelsea typically doesn't utilise all five of their substitutes, having made only 47 in-game changes so far. However, the players Enzo Maresca brings in are heavily affecting games, generating 2.94 expected goals and contributing with 23 chances created.
Meanwhile, Newcastle, who led last season with the most goal contributions from substitutes (22), seem ready to regain their momentum as injuries subside. The Magpies have seen their substitutes creating seven ‘big’ chances, more than any other club, but underperforming on both xG (2.12) and expected assists (2.8).
South Coast Match Promises Entertainment
For bettors, these statistics offer invaluable insights, particularly given the upcoming fixtures.
The top-half of the table clash between Bournemouth and Brighton, the two South Coast top clubs, appears primed for a second-half goal fest.
The data reinforces the likelihood of fireworks after the break.
Both teams have a combined total of 34 second-half goals, just over 1.5 on average, indicating a trend that bettors could ride to potential profit.
Similarly, the matchup between Newcastle and West Ham suggests a strong possibility for second-half action.
While Newcastle awaits improved fortunes from its bench strength, West Ham’s substitutes, credited with 2.68 expected goals, the league’s fifth best tally, are primed for impact.
Leaders Liverpool offer another interesting example as they face Southampton, who are at the bottom of the table.
Renowned for their late-game mentality and strength under former manager Jürgen Klopp, The Reds have secured 22 points from second-half performances this season—averaging an impressive 2 points per game in the latter halves.
As they face newly promoted Southampton, a side that has conceded six times after the break at home, punters might find value in betting on Liverpool to dominate the later stages of the match.