Our football predictions expert shares three best bets and forecasts for Spain vs Germany in this women’s Olympic football bronze medal match on Friday.
Spain vs Germany Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Spain vs Germany
- Spain Victory with odds of @1.89 on 1xBet, equating to a 51.3% chance of the Spanish nation winning.
- Lea Schüller to score any time with odds of @3.25 on 1xBet, indicating a 29.9% chance of the French forward scoring.
- Both teams to score with odds of @1.60 on 1xBet, representing a 62% chance for both clubs to find the back of the net.
Spain should beat Germany by a scoreline of 3-1 to earn the bronze medal.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
It’s an all-European clash for third place and the bronze medal at the 2024 Paris games as Spain take on Germany in Lyon. La Roja take their place in this match after that memorable clash with Brazil on Tuesday.
It was a lesson in chance quality for Spain. They created 14 corners and 26 shooting opportunities in the match compared to 2 corners and 17 shots for the South American side. But it’s about quality not quantity in front of goal. Brazil bagged four goals from 2.61 xG to Spain’s two goals from 1.75 expected.
Germany took the United States to extra time in their semi final but couldn’t get past the gold medal favourites. A 95th-minute winner from Sophia Olivia Smith secured the win in an up-and-down semi-final.
It will be the first time these nations have met in a competitive match since the 2022 Women’s European Championship. The Germans won that day but the bookies expect La Roja to clinch the bronze here.
Probable Lineups for Spain vs Germany
The probable lineup for Spain in the "system of play."
Coll; Batlle, Paredes, Codina, Carmona, Bonmati, Abelleira, Hermoso, Navarro, Paralluelo, Caldentey
The probable lineup for Germany in the "system of play."
Berger; Gwinn, Hendrich, Hegerin, Rauch, Lohmann, Nüsken, Minge, Bühl, Brand, Anyomi
Back the Reds
This Spanish squad is stacked with the sort of quality that cannot be ignored. Initially one of the favourites to go all the way in France, La Roja were given a footballing lesson by Brazil earlier in the week. Expect to change against a German side that has struggled since exiting the group.
Goals have been an issue for Germany. They haven’t found the net since the group stage. The Germans have generated an xGF of 1.57 per match. That’s far lower than Spain’s figure of 2.66 - the highest of any side in the competition.
Spain struggled to deal with Brazil’s direct passing - not that the defensive errors helped. Germany should not pose the same threat and the price for a win in 90 minutes appeals to anyone who’s watched them throughout this tournament.
- Spain vs Germany Bet 1: Spain Victory @ 1.89 with 1xBet
Schüller to Shine
Lea Schüller is the one to watch for Germany. The Bayern forward is her country’s top scorer in this competition so far with a brace against Zambia and one versus Australia in the group stage.
There will be chances for her against this Spanish backline. She is a forward in form for Germany. Those three goals in the group stage made it 10 in 12 appearances for her national team in 2024. The 26-year-old is already the 9th-top goalscorer in the history of Germany’s international women’s team.
With the pressure off and Spain serving as big favourites, Schüller could thrive. That opens up the betting market with some generous odds for a goal. 3.35 is the price for one any time but don’t ignore the 7.50 first goalscorer market either.
- Spain vs Germany Bet 2: Lea Schüller anytime goalscorer at odds of @ 3.25 with 1xBet
Pressure’s Off in Front of Goal
The pressure is off for both teams here. Of course, there is still a prize to be won but the desire to bag a gold could be more like a weight than a medal around the necks of some players. That could perhaps be seen in the snatched finishing and major underperformance on expected goalscoring figures in both semi-final clashes.
This could be the case in Lyon if the previous games are anything to go by. Rewind three years to the bronze match at Tokyo and we saw how entertaining a third-place playoff could be. The United States earned the medal after a memorable 4-3 victory over Australia in Kashima.
A similar seven-goal thriller would be appreciated here but given the underlying data of both teams, backing at least one goal at either end is the value play.
- Spain vs Germany Bet 3: Both Teams to Score @ 1.60 with 1xBet