An International Break Hangover? Stats Show Who to Back this Weekend

Players scatter worldwide to represent their nations in various competitions, and sometimes might pick up injuries that can impact preparation and performance upon their return. 

One of the unspoken rules in the world of football betting is that some big teams should be opposed in the first game following the international games. 

However, recent performances of these elite clubs, in their immediate post-break fixtures, suggest this is not the case. Let’s find out how to approach the return of domestic football in Europe’s top leagues. 

Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Top-four dominance in England

Backing top teams across Europe seems to be the best option, considering that since last season, the stronger sides have collected 36 wins, nine draws, and only four defeats post-break. 

The English top flight’s heavyweights—Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United—have been particularly dominant, achieving nine wins, two draws, and only one defeat (Manchester United at home to Brighton), last season. 

The trend continued after the September international break, with the aforementioned 'top four,' plus Aston Villa, considering their Champions League involvement this season, winning four out of five games. 

The only defeat was Liverpool's 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest, a game that, based on xG (1.17 vs 0.59), the Reds should have at least drawn.

The only game Arne Slot's squad failed to win in the current campaign serves as a quintessential example of a memorable post-international break defeat—one that football fans will remember for a long time. 

It reinforces the notion that top sides should be approached with caution after their star players return from national duty. 

However, as recent data indicates, elite clubs excel due to effective squad rotation, enhanced by the recent allowance of five substitutions, and the players' quick recovery from travel and fatigue.These factors highlight the continued dominance of these top teams.

Despite sending 13 players on international duty, it seems inevitable that Manchester City will extend their unbeaten Premier League streak to 31 games when they face bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton this Sunday, even though Wolves won this match 2-1 last season. 

The same story goes for Arsenal, who will welcome back 10 players who played with their national teams and are expected to secure the three points at Bournemouth. The Gunners have won all four of their meetings with Bournemouth since 2022, boasting an aggregate score of 13-2, with three or more goals scored in each match.

Manchester United's game against Brentford and Aston Villa's trip to Fulham could be trickier to predict, but in broad terms, backing the top sides, especially against lower or mid-tier opponents, seems profitable. 

Top of the table clashes could be cagey

The scenario could change if two top clubs compete against each other right after the international break, as will be the case for Roma vs Inter Milan on Saturday and Liverpool v Chelsea the following day. 

Based on last season’s results, you might expect low-scoring games or perhaps a 0-0 draw at halftime. 

During the 2023/2024 season, Italian top teams have met three times following international breaks. Juventus won 1-0 against AC Milan at San Siro, while the "Derby d’Italia" with Inter Milan ended in a 1-1 draw. 

A similar trend is seen in England’s Premier League, where Manchester City drew 1-1 with Liverpool and 0-0 with Arsenal. 

The only exception to this rule was Inter Milan's 5-1 victory over their city rivals in September 2023, although it’s worth noting that half of the goals were scored in the last 21 minutes of the derby. 

Italy’s top clubs—Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Napoli, and Roma—have consistently shown resilience after such hiatuses. Last season, these teams boasted a record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and only two defeats (both against strong sides like Atalanta and Lazio, following international breaks.

Last September, the five Italian teams playing in the Champions League remained unbeaten after the break, with two home wins and three away draws. This weekend, AC Milan is favoured to win at home against Udinese, while Atalanta has a strong chance of victory in their away match against newly-promoted Venezia.

In Spain, Real Madrid and Barcelona rarely falter after international breaks, boasting a record of 8 wins and two draws since last season. With Madrid's impeccable record against Celta Vigo (eight straight wins and 14 games unbeaten), the odds favour another victory. 

Betting on Los Blancos to win and possibly maintain a clean sheet could prove to be a smart move.

Barcelona hosts Sevilla, a side that is still winless on the road and that finished eighth in the away table for the 2023/2024 season, averaging 1.21 points per game, and with a minus three-goal difference. 

Betting on Barça to win comfortably, especially with a possible multi-goal margin, appears sound.