Backing PSG and Juventus To Stay Unbeaten Might Be A Risky Choice

Yet, despite their recent results, a closer look at historical data and upcoming matches suggests that betting on either team to remain undefeated might not be the wisest option.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Dominant, but not invincible

PSG's dominance in Ligue 1 suggests they could be on track for an unbeaten season. With a 32-match unbeaten streak in away games and and a ten-point lead at the top, Luis Enrique’s men appear almost invincible domestically.

Despite losing Kylian Mbappe over the summer, PSG have three more points in the table, and they have scored one more goal compared to last season.

Yet, since Nasser Al-Khelaifi became the club’s president, PSG has never completed an unbeaten campaign. The closest they got was suffering two defeats in 2015/2016 and 2023/2024.

Since 2011, PSG have averaged more than four losses per season, showing they are far from invincible.

With a 98.8% chance of winning the title, our in-house model suggests the Parisians might still face defeats, potentially two, which is something bettors must take into account.

Squad rotations and Champions League’s hopes

Expected goals (xG) data indicate that Paris Saint-Germain are currently averaging 2.40 expected points per game. This figure surpasses their performance over the last three seasons. It is even better than the 2015/2016 season, where they averaged 2.37 expected points per game—their best in Ligue 1 to date.

When could PSG potentially suffer a defeat in Ligue 1? One factor might be their Champions League form. PSG are currently 25th, a point below the knockout stage threshold. They also face two decisive matches against Manchester City and Stuttgart at the end of January.

PSG will visit Lens and Brest and host Reims between these fixtures. Considering PSG's commanding lead in Ligue 1, Luis Enrique may opt to significantly rotate his squad before and after these European contests.

This season, both Brest and Reims have found the net against PSG, with Reims managing to secure a 1-1 draw. Underlying data reveals that PSG have been outperformed in expected goals twice already, first against Toulouse at home and then on Wednesday against Monaco.

Moreover, betting data suggests that backing PSG to win or even avoid defeat in every match has not been rewarding. Over the last five seasons, placing level-stake bets on PSG to win in the 1X2 market would have led to a -3.8% loss.

Interestingly, despite an average of 4.8 defeats per season since the 2019/2020 campaign, betting against PSG in every match would have generated a 1.7% return on investment (ROI).

A tough challenge in Serie A

Juventus tell a different story in Serie A. Unbeaten but held back by 10 draws, the Bianconeri are sixth in the standings. However, falling nine points short of last year's tally at this stage (28 points compared to 37 in 2023/2024) has essentially put their title hopes out of reach.

Is an unbeaten Serie A season still within reach for Juventus?

The last time they achieved this was in the 2011/2012 season under Antonio Conte, with an impressive 49-match streak across two seasons. However, going unbeaten in Serie A is quite rare. AC Milan accomplished it in the 1991/92 season by winning the Scudetto without losing any of their 34 matches.

According to our in-house model, the Bianconeri have a 43.4% chance of finishing in the top four this season. However, our projections suggest Juventus will ultimately lose at least four games between now and the end of May - fewer than any other team expected to finish in the top six.

Despite consistently winning the xG battle so far, betting on the ‘Old Lady’ to remain unbeaten until the end of the Serie A season seems risky.

Like PSG, they still need to navigate Champions League play-off qualifications. They also face tough matches against Atalanta, AC Milan, and Napoli in late January when European football resumes.

Juventus have been unpredictable and unprofitable in betting markets over the past five seasons.

Unlike Inter and AC Milan, they returned a negative ROI of -3.4% in the 1X2 market for those who always backed them to win at level stakes. The most reliable value for bettors has come from choosing the Under 2.5 Goals in Juventus matches since 2019, yielding an ROI of 10.5%.