Brighton vs Manchester United Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Brighton vs Manchester United
Brighton to win with odds of @ 2.524 on 1xBet, equating to a 40.8% implied probability.
Joao Pedro to score with odds of @ 3.50 on 1xBet, equating to a 38.5% implied probability.
Under 4.5 total goals with odds of @ 1.21 on 1xBet, equating to a 47.6% implied probability.
Our prediction is Brighton will beat Manchester United by a score of 2-1.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Brighton, top of the league with one round of matches played, host Manchester United at the Amex on Saturday lunchtime.
Fabian Hürzeler had a dream start to his Premier League career with a 3-0 win over Everton last weekend. Brighton waved goodbye to Roberto De Zerbi over the summer and sold club stalwart Pascal Gross to Borussia Dortmund. It might have been a summer of change, but the south-coast club are poised for another strong Premier League season.
With the arrival of Georginio Rutter, Hürzeler has a welcome selection dilemma in the final third after Danny Welbeck’s goal and assist in the season opener. Joao Pedro is also a candidate to lead the line if Hürzeler opts to get another body in midfield.
Manchester United decided to continue with Erik ten Hag as their manager this summer. The opening match of the season saw an uninspiring win at home to Fulham, which should see ten Hag hand first starts to Matthijs de Ligt and Joshua Zirkzee this weekend.
After all the talk off the pitch, the Red Devils have a great deal to prove on it. Last season was disappointing, and this summer’s transfer business has not been the most inspiring. They face a difficult trip to the Amex on Saturday.
Probable Lineups for Brighton vs Manchester United
Brighton probable XI:
Steele; Veltman, Hecke, Dunk, Hinshelwood; Milner, Wieffer; Minteh, Pedro, Mitoma; Welbeck.
Manchester United probable XI:
Onana; Mazraoui, de Ligt, Martinez, Dalot; Casemiro, Mainoo; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Zirkzee.
Value Backing The Hosts
Even in a down year by their recent standards (an 11th-placed finish), Brighton had a much better expected goal difference than Manchester United. They might have finished 12 points behind the Red Devils, but that tally overestimates the gap between the sides.
Last weekend was a reminder of how good Brighton can be. The addition of Georginio Rutter gives another exciting option up front after losing the reliable contributions of Pascal Gross.
Manchester United should bring Joshua Zirkzee in as the number nine, allowing Bruno Fernandes to play as the 10. Ten Hag has to figure out the preferred balance of his attack, and the same goes for his midfield, with Casemiro surprisingly still at the club.
Brighton appeared to be the better of the two sides last weekend, and we don’t think they should be the underdogs for this match. The 2.45 is excellent value with the metrics these teams posted last season.
Brighton vs Manchester United Bet 1: Brighton to win @ 2.524 on 1xBet
Brighton’s Star Man Steps Up
Joao Pedro, who scored 15 goals across the Europa League and Premier League last season, hit the woodwork in the 3-0 win over Everton last weekend.
Just nine Premier League players amassed more expected goals per 90 than Pedro last season. His expected goals per 90 were higher than Dominic Solanke, Ollie Watkins, and Bukayo Saka.
Whether he operates as the number 10 or leads the line, Pedro represents a good price to find the net against Manchester United on Saturday. United’s defence might have been solid enough last weekend, but there’s no magic fix for a back line that leaked so many opportunities last season.
Brighton vs Manchester United Bet 2: Joao Pedro to score anytime @ 3.50 on 1xBet
Quiet 90 Minutes For The Referee
These teams combined for three yellow cards in the opening round of matches. Craig Pawson was named as the referee for this fixture, and he averaged just over four cards per match in the Premier League last season.
Brighton generally do not receive many cards. United have a few booking candidates in their squad, but some of the players with patchier disciplinary records are either out of favour or unavailable.
We feel comfortable taking the under for this market, particularly when we’re getting a price of 2.10.
Brighton vs Manchester United Bet 3: Under 4.5 total cards @ 1.21 on 1xBet