Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
- Draw no bet – Borussia Dortmund with odds of @1.62 on Betano, equating to a 62.1% implied probability.
- Over 1.5 first-half goals with odds of @2.12 on Betano, indicating a 47.6% implied probability.
- Serhou Guirassy to score in a Dortmund win with odds of @3.50 on Betano, representing a 28.6% implied probability.
Borussia Dortmund are predicted to beat RB Leipzig 2-1 on Saturday.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Signal Iduna Park sees Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig match up in the Bundesliga’s late kick-off on Saturday.
Both teams are struggling with injury issues coming into this match. Dortmund are without Niklas Sule and Karim Adeyemi, while Marcel Sabitzer and Julian Ryerson are listed as doubts.
Dortmund have lost three matches in a row, all of which have been away from home. They have won all four of their home matches in the Bundesliga, however, scoring 12 goals in the process.
Leipzig are without David Raum, Xaver Schlager, and Xavi Simons, while Assan Ouédraogo is not yet ready to return to the XI. However, Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko, their star attacking pair, are both available.
The visitors knocked St. Pauli out of the DFB-Pokal in midweek to make it four wins from their last five matches. They are level on points with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga table coming into this round of fixtures.
Probable Lineups for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund probable XI:
Kobel; Anton, Schlotterbeck, Couto; Gittens, Can, Gross, Ryerson; Brandt, Sabitzer; Guirassy.
RB Leipzig probable XI:
Gulacsi; Geertruida, Orban, Lukeba, Klostermann; Nusa, Haidara, Kampl, Baumgartner; Sesko, Openda.
Trusting the Hosts
Although RB Leipzig have won their last three matches against Dortmund, we don’t see them extending that streak here. Xavi Simons is a big loss, and Dortmund have won all five of their home matches this season.
It’s tempting to take Dortmund to win the match at 2.20. Leipzig are unbeaten in domestic competition this term, and there is little to choose between their underlying numbers.
The odds on this wager are short, but this feels like a good option considering Dortmund are at 1.40 to win or draw.
- Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Bet 1: Draw no bet – Borussia Dortmund @ 1.62 with Betano
Goals in the First 45
The last three meetings between these sides at Signal Iduna Park have produced over 1.5 first-half goals. Their contests in front of Dortmund’s fans have been high-scoring since Leipzig arrived in the Bundesliga.
Despite the seven-point gap in the table, there isn’t much to choose between these teams. Leipzig’s underlying metrics indicate their defence could struggle here, even with their league-leading defensive record thus far.
Our Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig predictions indicate there is significant value in taking this wager straight up at 2.10. We would even consider combining it with both teams to score in a bet builder to access a longer price.
- Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Bet 2: Over 1.5 first half goals @ 2.12 with Betano
Guirassy to Lead Dortmund to Another Win
Serhou Guirassy has scored in five matches since joining Borussia Dortmund. The Black and Yellows have won on all five occasions.
Since Guirassy was held scoreless in Dortmund’s 4-2 win over Heidenheim on his debut, Nuri Sahin’s side haven’t won a match unless Guirassy has scored. Among players who have started more than two Bundesliga fixtures, only two have amassed more expected goals per 90 minutes.
Dortmund’s chances are directly tied to Guirassy’s productivity. With seven goals to his name this season, we love the value in this market. Our Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig predictions indicate it’s a much better option than 2.20 to score anytime.
- Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Bet 3: Serhou Guirassy to score in a Dortmund win @ 3.50 with Betano