Napoli's decision to loan out Victor Osimhen to Galatasaray after the sale of the Nigerian striker to Saudi Arabia collapsed, and bring in Romelu Lukaku has created a significant shift in their Serie A ambitions and the betting markets.
While comparisons between the two centre-forwards are often deemed premature or even uncomfortable, the immediate impact of Lukaku has been profound.
With Osimhen destined to leave Napoli, at least for this season, and Lukaku stepping up as the central figure in attack, Napoli's approach, team dynamics, and even the Belgian striker prospects in the top scorer market are set for a dramatic transformation.
- Romelu Lukaku scored 47 league goals over two seasons (averaged 0.65 goals per match) when he played for Inter Milan under the management of Antonio Conte.
- The Belgian striker has scored 71 Serie A goals in 130 games (average 0.54 goals per match)
- Victor Osimhen has scored 65 league goals in 108 games for Napoli (average 0.60 goals per match)
Odds courtesy of Betano. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A Leadership Test for Conte
The omission of Victor Osimhen from Napoli's squad is not merely a tactical decision but a statement of principle by manager Antonio Conte.
Osimhen's exclusion stems from internal conflicts, with the club opting to leave the Nigerian forward out of the squad until at least the January transfer window.
This decision, driven by Conte’s unwavering commitment to discipline and team cohesion, has inevitably impacted the team’s preparations and market activities leading up to the season.
Osimhen was pivotal in Napoli's attack, scoring 76 goals in all competitions over four seasons. He offered a unique blend of speed, aerial prowess, and a relentless work rate.
In stark contrast to the Osimhen saga, Romelu Lukaku's arrival has injected a renewed sense of optimism into Napoli. Lukaku, having quickly integrated into the squad with minimal training, has already begun to make his mark. In just his first half-hour cameo against Parma, Lukaku demonstrated why he was a top priority for Conte.
Lukaku's impact extends beyond his individual performances. His role as the central striker provides a focal point for Napoli’s attack, allowing the team’s wingers and midfielders to exploit the spaces his movement creates.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, David Neres and Scott McTominay will all benefit in terms of goalscoring opportunities from the presence of the former Chelsea striker occupying defenders.
New approach brings fresh hopes
Tactically, Lukaku offers a different dimension compared to Osimhen.
While Osimhen thrived on pace and direct runs, Lukaku brings a more physical approach that aligns well with Conte’s tactical blueprint. Conte’s system, which often relies on a strong target man, finds a perfect match in Lukaku. His ability to shield the ball and bring teammates into play fits Conte's preferred style of counter-attacking football, which emphasises quick transitions and exploiting opposition weaknesses.
With Lukaku leading the line, Napoli can alternate between playing through the middle and utilising the flanks, making them a more versatile and formidable attacking force.
Lukaku’s presence at Napoli could have ripple effects across Serie A. His ability to score consistently will put pressure on other title contenders, forcing them to adapt their defensive strategies when facing Napoli.
Moreover, his success could alter the transfer strategies of other teams, particularly those that rely on high-pressing and compact defensive lines, which Lukaku’s physicality and hold-up play can disrupt.
The betting market's reaction to Lukaku’s arrival highlights the belief in his potential to become one of the league's top scorers.
Among Serie A’s top strikers, only Inter’s Lautaro Martinez has matched the number of goals scored in a single Serie A campaign (24) by the Belgian.
With Ciro Immobile (Lazio’s top scorer in Serie A with 169 goals) now playing in Turkey and Osimhen (26 goals in 2022/2023) out of contention, the chances for Lukaku to become Capocannoniere are real.
The odds reflect confidence not just in his individual ability but also in Conte’s tactical system, which is designed to funnel opportunities towards the central striker.
Napoli’s aspirations in Serie A this season will depend significantly on how well Lukaku adapts and whether he can consistently deliver in key moments.
While the addition of the Belgian is undoubtedly a boost, questions remain about whether it will be enough to propel Napoli into genuine title contention.
While Lukaku improves Napoli’s attack, the team still has underlying defensive frailties and a lack of depth in certain positions, which could hinder their ability to remain competitive over a long campaign.