Atletico’s decline opens betting angle in La Liga outright markets

Barcelona are cruising atop La Liga, and Real Madrid are almost guaranteed to finish in second place. Amid Atleti's decline, there's potential value in the market for winners excluding Barca and Real.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

End of an Era at Metropolitano

The days of Atletico Madrid competing with Real Madrid and Barcelona for the title appear to be in the past. Atleti haven’t recorded more than 77 points in the last three seasons. Rumours are beginning to surface that the club’s hierarchy are evaluating potential successors to Diego Simeone, including Aston Villa manager Unai Emery.

Girona finished third in 2023-24, resulting in Atletico’s first campaign outside the top three since 2011-12. A summer involving the signings of Julian Alvarez, Conor Gallagher, and Robin Le Normand followed. However, Simeone’s side have begun the new season slowly.

Four wins before the international break represented a step in the right direction, but two wins from six across all competitions in October were a sign that Atletico are not going to be able to keep up with Real Madrid and Barcelona throughout the 2024-25 season. Atleti's expected goal difference is significantly lower than Barca's and is 0.14 per 90 minutes short of Real's.

Villarreal are only a couple of points behind Atleti, with a game in hand. Athletic Club have a similar expected goal difference to last season, which ranks fourth in La Liga despite drawing their last three league fixtures.

Winner Without Real & Barca Value Picks

Strong underlying stats and a history of success make Atleti the clear favourites in the winner market excluding Barcelona and Real Madrid at Betway and Bet365. However, there is value elsewhere in this market, with significant returns possible if bettors back any other team to claim best of the rest in the Spanish top flight.

Villarreal are in the strongest position at the time of writing, which makes their 6.00 price look like excellent value. They do not have the stresses of European commitments, and they have already played each of the top three.

Osasuna and Girona are the Yellow Submarine’s first two opponents after the break. Both are below average in their expected goal difference. Villarreal also host Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano and visit Leganes before the winter break.

Given that Atletico have one win in their first four matches following Champions League fixtures, Simeone’s team are going to be vulnerable over the next couple of months. They also face Barcelona before Christmas, and their dropped points in the Champions League mean they cannot afford to rotate too heavily in their midweek fixtures.

Athletic Club should not be underestimated. Ten points from four Europa League matches will allow them to focus on La Liga, plus they have only lost once across all competitions since August.

Unai Simon is nearing a return from injury, performing at an elite level away from home, despite securing only two wins. The home form is always going to be solid over the course of the season – if they can maintain this level of chance creation and prevention on the road, a top three finish is well within reach.

Real Sociedad might have the next shortest odds in this market, but we think Real Betis are a better option given their lengthy odds. La Real are away to Athletic Club before hosting Betis. The teams have very similar expected goal differences, but Betis have been an elite attacking team, with the best expected goals mark outside the top two. La Real are middle of the pack at both ends of the pitch.

Los Verdiblancos have a tricky schedule before the winter break, but this is a very generous price. Their odds shouldn’t be much longer than La Real’s. Betis’ price will shorten massively if they get a result when the two teams meet at the start of December.

It doesn't take much for bettors to convince themselves to back Villarreal, Athletic Club, or Betis. Villarreal and Betis look like the two best options as it stands. This could be the ideal time to place a bet in this market after Atleti’s string of wins before the break.