World Cup 2026 draw preview: What’s ideal for the USMNT, Mexico and Canada - and what’s the worst-case scenario?

Ideal scenario - Australia (26), Saudi Arabia (60), New Caledonia (149).
There are teams technically “worse” than Australia or Saudi Arabia, but the U.S. would benefit from having just played — and beaten — both in 2025. There’d be no real surprises, and given how shorthanded the USMNT were in those wins, they’d have every reason to feel good about navigating those matchups again.

Worst-case scenario - Morocco (11), Norway (29), Italy (12).
This would be an absolute blender. Morocco have been giving U.S. Soccer fits across the youth levels — the last thing the USMNT want is to run into them on another big stage. Norway have Manchester City’s cheat code Erling Haaland, which is explanation enough. And while Italy may not be prime Italy anymore, they’re still significantly better than any other Pot 4 team. Best to avoid that entirely.

Team the USMNT want to face in the group stage - Ghana.
For the vibes? Ghana, obviously. The USMNT’s historical World Cup foil sits right there in Pot 4, and if the Soccer Gods have a sense of humor, they’ll put them together again. Ghana aren’t quite the Black Stars of old, which means the U.S. could finally get some revenge on a familiar rival.

Team the USMNT want to avoid - Morocco.
Morocco have become the U.S.’s bogey team. Youth results don’t always translate to senior tournaments, sure — but try telling the narrative that. A loss to Croatia or Colombia would sting; a loss to Morocco would haunt, especially given how the African side keep thriving in spaces the U.S. are desperate to reach despite having far fewer resources. Right now, they’ve got American soccer in a blender, and no one wants to see that again.

Key storyline - Manage expectations, manage the moment.
The expectations for this team are straightforward: get out of the group and see where the tournament takes you. Ideally, the group challenges them without overwhelming them — something like Qatar’s England–Wales–Iran setup. Give the U.S. a similar runway here, keep the momentum rolling into the knockouts, and from there… anything can happen.

Ideal scenario - Australia (26), South Africa (61), New Zealand (86).
This is as favorable as it gets. Mexico would be heavy favorites to advance - and likely to top the group - against this trio. The problem? It would take a good bit of luck for this draw to actually materialize.

Worst-case scenario - Colombia (13), Norway (29), UEFA Playoff Winner A (Italy/Northern Ireland/Wales/Bosnia).
This is the nightmare. On paper, Javier Aguirre’s side would be one of the weakest teams in the group — especially if the final UEFA qualifier ends up being Italy. All Mexico can do here is hope the draw balls fall kindly.

Team Mexico most wants to face in the group stage - South Africa or Qatar.
Given how turbulent the outlook is for El Tri, the ideal opener is a softer landing spot. Among the “easier” options in Pot 3 or Pot 4, South Africa or Qatar would give Aguirre’s team a gentler introduction to the tournament and a chance to build early momentum.

Team Mexico most wants to avoid - Norway or Colombia.
Mexico will desperately want to steer clear of both. If Norway appear, they’re almost certainly the opening-match opponent; if it’s Colombia, that second game in Guadalajara suddenly becomes a gauntlet. Either matchup risks an early stumble - and forces Mexico into a must-win scenario on the final matchday.

Key storyline - Searching for identity on the sport’s biggest stage.
Mexico still lack a defined identity, cohesion, and a true difference-maker - and that’s not new. Those issues have lingered since Qatar 2022, when El Tri crashed out of the group stage. Aguirre hasn’t fully exorcised the ghosts left behind by Gerardo Martino either. Without a standout individual to lean on, he’ll need to build a functional collective quickly if Mexico are to survive the group.

Ideal scenario - Austria (24), Qatar (51), Cape Verde (68)
There’s no real threat here. Austria struggled through European qualifying, even with a forgiving group, and they lack the kind of star who can win a game on their own. Qatar don’t quite have the talent to make an impact, and while Cape Verde have improved, they’re still a cycle away from doing real damage at a World Cup. FIFA rankings can be misleading, but in this case, the lower numbers tell a pretty accurate story.

Worst-case scenario - Colombia (13), Scotland (36), Ghana (72)
Who wants to see Colombia right now? Luis Díaz is thriving at Bayern Munich, and there’s talent everywhere on the pitch. Jesse Marsch can take heart from a 0-0 draw in New Jersey in October, but Colombia were poor that night. Scotland, meanwhile, are all about momentum. Their FIFA ranking may be low for a Pot 3 team, but they have experience across the squad, and their fans will make any match a nightmare - even on North American soil. Ghana aren’t the force they once were, but they’re still a difficult matchup. It’s winnable, sure, but hardly simple. This group would push Canada from the opening whistle.

Team Canada most want to face in the group stage - Australia
How about an Australia revenge tour? That 1-0 loss to the Socceroos was one of the worst performances of Marsch’s tenure, but Canada will feel they have more than enough to flip the result this time. Yes, there are lower-ranked teams that anyone would prefer, but Marsch talks constantly about wanting tests. Australia would provide a meaningful one.

Team Canada most wants to avoid - Colombia
No need to overthink this. Colombia are a nightmare draw in Pot 2 and a trendy dark-horse pick to win the whole thing. And wherever the match is played, it’s essentially an away game for Canada.

Key storyline - How far can Canada go this time?
There’s a fun subplot in watching whether Canada outperform the USMNT, especially given how layered that rivalry has become. Marsch carries a bit of a chip on his shoulder and would relish getting one over on the neighbors. But realistically, this is about Les Rouges building on Qatar 2022. This is still a young group that fell well short last time. Getting into the knockout stage would be a strong step forward.