Martin Odegaard was joint-third with 10 Premier League assists last season, but the underlying metrics indicated he should have had a much higher tally. We think there’s exceptional value taking Odegaard to lead the league in assists.
- Odegaard had the most passes into the penalty area last season.
- No player had more expected assists in 2023-24.
- Rodri was the only regular starter with more progressive passes per match.
Excellent Metrics For Odegaard
Odegaard led the Premier League in expected assists last season with 11.2, surpassing his Arsenal teammate Bukayo Saka. The Norwegian also had 130 passes into the penalty area in 2023-24, which was 41 more than any other player. Only Bruno Fernandes and Pascal Gross had more key passes (passes that lead directly to shots).
Ultimately, Odegaard was unlucky to finish with just 10 league assists. He had 2.5 more expected assists than Cole Palmer, for instance, who finished second in the assist charts with 11. Ollie Watkins, who topped the assist leaderboard, had 4.2 expected assists for 13 actual assists.
Assist tallies involve an element of luck since they depend on the finishing of teammates and the simplistic nature of awarding assists. Watkins’ return was still a bit of an anomaly, however, with Harry Kane’s 2020-21 season the only comparable one in the last five years.
Posting the most total expected assists generally gets a player very close to finishing with the most assists. Key passes and passes into the penalty area are also reliable indicators.
Best Value in the Market
Kevin De Bruyne, Cole Palmer, and Bruno Fernandes have shorter odds than Odegaard to lead the league in assists. De Bruyne is the heavy favourite, and it’s easy to see why with his 0.52 expected assists per 90 being far clear of anyone else last term. Availability is a concern for the Belgian, though, given he made only 15 league starts in 2023-24. He has made 25 or fewer league starts in three of the last four seasons.
Palmer and Fernandes posted worse expected assist numbers than Odegaard. Both were a long way behind De Bruyne and Odegaard in passes into the opposition penalty area, too. Where Arsenal and Manchester City are destined to have high-powered attacks, there’s much more uncertainty with Chelsea and Manchester United.
We can’t justify Palmer and Fernandes being at shorter prices. Odegaard has proven himself to be the best non-De Bruyne chance creator in the Premier League, and he’s been more durable than the Manchester City star. There’s great value taking Odegaard at 13.00 here.