In previous seasons, this would almost certainly result in elimination from European competitions.
However, the extended league phase this season has added more uncertainty, giving hope to nearly every team involved, which in turn influences betting scenarios for the upcoming matchday six.
Champions League - Match Day 6 | Odds |
|---|---|
RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa: Leipzig or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals | |
Stuttgart vs Young Boys: Multi Goals 2-3 | |
Atletico Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava: Atletico win and Over 3.5 Goals |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Is the Champions League really more competitive?
In the old structure of the tournament, it was extremely rare to see teams with zero points after five games.
Out of 96 teams across the last three Champions League editions, only three finished their group campaigns without points, and four failed to register any points after five matches.
Antwerp, the only club with zero points after five matches, beat Barcelona on matchday six last season, ending their debut campaign on a high.
In 2022/2023, Rangers and Viktoria Plzen were the only teams to finish the group stage without a point, alongside Beşiktaş back in 2021/2022.
The expansion to 36 clubs has made the league phase slightly less competitive, with three teams still struggling to score a point and another, Bologna, who are yet to secure a win.
Yet, all of them still hold a glimmer of hope of advancing through the playoffs.
How to reach the play-offs
Simulations suggest that securing 11 points offers a very high probability of finishing in the top 24. Currently, five teams—Liverpool, Inter Milan, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, and Atalanta—are nearly guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
However, their goal is a top-eight finish to advance directly to the round of 16, avoiding the extra burden of the February playoffs.
With 11 more teams potentially reaching the 11-point threshold this week, the new Champions League format enables the top 24 teams to qualify.
Nonetheless, this leaves RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava, and Young Boys with slim hopes.
Statistical models highlight that accumulating seven points in the next three fixtures—two wins and a draw—gives them just a 0.3% chance of avoiding elimination.
However, if they win all their remaining games, collecting nine points, their chances of a top-24 finish rise to 46%.
Rose’s men need a reaction
RB Leipzig have had a tough schedule so far, taking on the two frontrunners, Liverpool and Inter Milan, along with away games against Atletico Madrid—a European stronghold where the Spanish side rarely falter—and Celtic.
As they look ahead to two home fixtures against Aston Villa and Sporting, as well as a visit to Sturm Graz on the final matchday, Leipzig's mission of securing nine points remains tough, but achievable.
Die Roten Bullen’s expected goals (xG) data suggests they should have found the net 6.3 times, pointing to the possibility of improvement in their attack.
Defensively, Marco Rose’s side have struggled with only two clean sheets in all competitions from late October.
According to our in-house projection model, the German club face a slim 5.8% chance of finishing in the top 24 of the Champions League. This figure, however, is relatively optimistic when compared to Girona, Red Star Belgrade, or Sparta Prague, who, despite having more points, are given even lower probabilities.
Our in-house model predicts the game against Aston Villa is the most likely to result in a draw among all the encounters on the sixth matchday, with a probability of 25.8%.
Trust Atletico to rack up the goals
Young Boys, whose schedule appears most manageable among the three teams without points, face away fixtures against Stuttgart and Celtic before hosting Red Star Belgrade.
The Swiss outfit, once a domestic powerhouse but now sitting ninth in the Swiss top division, have also underperformed in recent European campaigns, failing to win an away Champions League game since 1960.
Young Boys have the worst shot conversion rate in the competition (25.6%) and face a tough encounter at Stuttgart. According to our projections, they are considered heavy underdogs with a 75.7% chance of defeat.
Meanwhile, Slovan Bratislava, with no chances of advancing to the playoffs based on our in-house projections, face the toughest challenges ahead.
Upcoming matches against Atletico Madrid, Stuttgart, and Bayern Munich are all expected to be high-scoring affairs. With Atletico projected to dominate their match-up, suggested bets lean towards an Asian Handicap of -2.25 or a large Spanish win with over 3.5 goals.