Brendan Rodgers is optimistic after a strong 0-0 draw against Atalanta, as they face an RB Leipzig team that has lost all three of their Champions League games so far.
Considering Atalanta’s dominance on Matchday 3 and Celtic’s track record in a high-scoring competition, should we dismiss their recent 0-0 draw? Here, we’ll delve into Celtic’s Champions League past and the market moves surrounding the goal markets in their 2024/25 European fixtures.
Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Recent History Suggests Goals in Scotland
Let’s overlook Celtic’s recent 0-0 draw against Atalanta for the moment. For years, Celtic's challenges and strategies against top-tier Champions League teams away from home have been apparent, and there's no dishonour in that. There is a noticeable gap in quality between Scottish football and the game elsewhere on the continent.
The stats (2.64xG vs 2.20xG) suggest a different narrative, but Celtic were fortunate the score was only 7-1 against Borussia Dortmund on Matchday 2. It could have been worse. Brendan Rodgers can count that alongside the 7-0 defeat to Barca, 7-1 defeat to PSG, and 6-0 thrashing by Atletico Madrid during his tenure.
Celtic played three games in the Champions League group stage last season against Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Feyenoord. Celtic lost all three with a 10-0 aggregate scoreline. The previous year against Shakhtar, Leipzig, and Real Madrid- Celtic were defeated twice with a 9-3 aggregate scoreline, again finishing last in their group with a whimper.
There were three goals in the first ten minutes in Dortmund on Matchday 2. In that fixture, Dortmund created three Big Chances. In contrast, on Matchday 3, Atalanta created 7 Big Chances, and the game ended 0-0. Celtic rode their luck, which is exactly what they’ll have to do to progress in this season’s Champions League.
The argument here is to not overlook goals and to not overlook a visiting RB Leipzig side that is priced at 2.00, off of that 0-0 showing last time out. The 3.0 Asian Goal Line at 1.99 or Over 3.5 Total Goals at 2.37 presents as the two standouts.
Can Celtic Market Analysis Get Us Ahead of the Rest?
Market analysis is essential. Seeing where and how the market moves for certain teams and selections can best paint a picture of where the big betting syndicates and the broader market are investing their money.
Getting ahead of the market successfully will see us lock in value and beat the closing line. The Asian Handicaps and Asian Goal Lines are a good place to start in terms of market analysis.
The 3.25 Asian Goal Line (3 goals return half stakes and 4 goals return full profits) in Atalanta vs Celtic was priced at 2.08 on release at bet365. By the time kick-off came around, that had shortened to 1.86.
For Dortmund vs Celtic on Matchday 2, exactly the same thing happened to the 3.25 Asian Goal Line: released at 2.08 and shortening to 1.84 by kick-off - nearly mirroring market moves.
Matchday 1 offered a different dynamic, with Celtic as heavy favourites hosting Slovan Bratislava. Similarly, the market shifted here as well, with bets favouring more goals leading up to the game—the 3.25 Asian Goal Line opened at 2.09 and dropped to 1.94.
RB Leipzig have had a gruesome start to life in this season’s Champions League, facing defeats in all their fixtures against Atletico Madrid, Juventus, and Liverpool, with a 3-6 aggregate score.
They were unlucky not to secure a result against Liverpool, losing 0-1 at home. The Juventus fixture (2-3) saw them smother the Italian giants but still lose, and Atleti away (2-1) will always be a difficult fixture to navigate. Against Celtic, however, it's reasonable to expect that they might capitalise on the chances they missed against stronger opponents.
As it stands, the 3.25 Asian Goal Line is priced at 2.15 on the week before the Champions League midweek fixtures. Can we assume that the money will again come for goals in Celtic’s European fixtures?
If current Champions League trends persist, even with this match now being played at home rather than in Germany or Italy, we might find value in the 3.0 Asian Goal Line at 1.99 or the Over 3.5 Total Goals at 2.37 by the time the game kicks off.