‘Kingmakers’ Brentford Are Bettors’ Biggest Dilemma Over The Next Month

The Bees have reached an all-time high of 23 points after 15 games, fresh from a landmark victory over Newcastle United – their first in 67 years.

Despite boasting the best domestic form in Europe's top five leagues with seven wins and a draw, their dismal away performance has left them near the bottom of the table, with just one point—matching Southampton's road record.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Can they sting the title contenders?

Heading to Stamford Bridge this Sunday, Thomas Frank’s side will face Chelsea, a team sitting just four points adrift of leaders Liverpool.

As the festive fixtures loom, Brentford are scheduled to host title challengers Arsenal, reigning champions Manchester City, and current leaders Liverpool, as well as fifth-placed Nottingham Forest.

Their impressive home performances cast The Bees as potential 'kingmakers' with their results, having significant implications for the title race and the battle for the top four.

Despite our projections suggesting a 12th place finish for Brentford with 49.5 points, there is an air of unpredictability around the side as they navigate this defining spell.

Crucial to Brentford’s home success are forwards Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, who have been a force at the Gtech Community Stadium. Mbeumo has notched eight of his nine league goals at home, while Wissa has scored in his last seven home league matches. Yet, their campaign has not been without frailties.

Despite leading against Newcastle, they conceded twice before overcoming their opponents with second-half goals from Nathan Collins and Kevin Schade.

Goalkeeper Mark Flekken remains the busiest in the top flight, leading the league in saves—a testament to both the volume of opportunities he faces and his team’s intermittent defensive lapses.

A European dream in the making

With an impressive home goal difference of +12, Brentford have outperformed their non-penalty expected goals tally by 6.8. However, they remain fifth from bottom in shots per 90 minutes and rely heavily on accuracy. Their 44.8% on-target rate is the best in the league.

Is the Brentford bubble on the verge of bursting, or will their excellent home form endure so as to shake up the Premier League winner's odds?

Our projections indicate Brentford should earn only 1.13 points per game from this point forward, a significant decrease from their current average of 1.53.

This outcome would see the team improve by 10 points over last season's total, yet fall 10 points short of their best-ever Premier League tally of 59 points achieved in the 2022/2023 campaign.

Additionally, our model assigns Brentford a mere 28.1% chance of finishing in the top half of the table.

However, Thomas Frank's side could potentially match their best-ever points tally if the Danish manager maintains his 45.31% career win rate, which could lead to an historical qualification to play European competitions.

Although Brentford experienced home defeats to Arsenal, City, and Liverpool last season, they have shown they can stage major upsets, notably beating Chelsea away.

As the title race intensifies, all eyes will be on Brentford and their ability to disrupt the status quo at their West London stronghold.