Leeds vs Chelsea Predictions: EPL Matchweek 3 Odds & Best Bets

Leeds United and Chelsea will meet for the first time this season in the Premier League on Sunday, Aug. 21, at Elland Road. Each club enters the match with a 1-1-0 record after each side won their opening fixtures while settling for a draw in Matchweek 2.

The Blues could be without manager Thomas Tuchel, who received a red card after an altercation with Tottenham’s Antonio Conte this past weekend.

So, which team has the edge going into Matchweek 3? Let’s look at current betting lines to determine best bets and make our game prediction for Leeds vs Chelsea.

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Leeds vs Chelsea Odds

-3-way Handicap: Chelsea (-175) | Leeds (+450) | Draw (+320)

-Draw No Bet: Chelsea (-500) / Leeds (+310)

-Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-145) / Under 2.5 (+105)

Matthew Williams' 2022-23 EPL Betting Record: 7-5, +13.3 units

Leeds vs Chelsea odds are current as of Monday, Aug. 15, at noon ET on BetMGM Sportsbook.

After their impressive performance against Tottenham, the Blues will likely see the odds shift further in their favor as the week drags on.

There seems to be an expectation for a high-scoring game with -145 odds on Over 2.5 goals.

Leeds vs Chelsea Betting Tips

Expect a low total – but pass on the Over/Under

Chelsea has scored three goals through the first two match weeks. The first was a penalty kick converted by Jorginho on the road against Everton, with the others coming against Tottenham from defensive standouts Reece James and Kalidou Koulibaly.

Tuchel’s club may thrive at controlling possession, but the Blues have struggled to generate threat in the attacking third this season. Chelsea’s offensive struggle will likely continue if they are unable to upgrade their attack with a true nine during the summer transfer window.

Meanwhile, it was clear that Leeds was fading during the second half against Southampton due to the heat, conceding two goals in the final 20 minutes of play.

The Whites were unable to keep the pace they maintained early on. If they fail to sustain themselves Sunday, the Blues might take advantage late in the match. On the other hand, this could also contribute to the Under hitting.

There is a clear reason to bet the Under, but there is a specific narrative that makes sense for the Over, as well. The wise choice is to steer clear of the Over/Under in this match.

Can Chelsea’s front three score a goal?

As mentioned above, Chelsea has a clear weakness when it comes to converting goals in the attacking third.

Raheem Sterling has certainly done his part, teleporting all around the pitch, attempting to create scoring opportunities. However, Kai Havertz has failed to connect in the box, while Mason Mount has yet to make a meaningful contribution through the first two matches.

Tuchel has done a strong job of improving Chelsea’s performance from Matchweek 1 to Matchweek 2, and it’s possible that the Blues can continue to get by with a team-wide scoring effort. However, to be a serious contender, they will need a consistent scoring threat from their front three.

Expect Chelsea to continue their possession-focused attack against Leeds, likely contributing to a lower score total.

Leeds will test Chelsea’s ability to dominate possession

Leeds escaped with a narrow victory in Matchweek 1 due to a late own goal by Wolverhampton.

The Whites lost the possession battle 40% to 60% during the match, compared to their 58% to 42% edge on Saturday versus Southampton, which ended in a draw.

Leeds performed better during the draw than they did in their win, even though the results suggest otherwise. Fading down the stretch cost the Whites three points on the road.

On the other hand, Chelsea dominated possession 64% to 36% during their controversial draw with Tottenham. The Blues completed 595 passes at Stamford Bridge while completely controlling the match's pace.

If Chelsea can command this type of possession advantage, it will be a long day for Leeds United.

Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction

Leeds 0-2 Chelsea

The Blues looked like a very different team against Tottenham compared to their first match on the road at Everton.

Chelsea looked more comfortable as a group, firing crisp passes to maintain ball control. Even without a proper striker, the Blues’ defensive effort and high-possession approach will be enough to get them three points at Elland road.

Leeds have an interesting midfield, led by Brenden Aaronson and Jack Harrison but lack firepower at the front beyond Rodrigo following the loss of Raphinha in the summer transfer window. If the Spurs struggled mightily against Chelsea’s press, it’s unlikely that the Whites will have an answer.

Look for the Blues to pick up a road win against a rebuilding Leeds side.

Leeds vs Chelsea Best Bets

➕Chelsea Wins: Multiple Correct Score 0:1, 0:2, 0:3 (+220)

➕Chelsea Wins: Multiple Correct Score 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (+333) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

If you place a 3-way wager on Chelsea to win at -175, your profit will be 0.57 units.

However, if you place two separate bets for “Chelsea to win and both teams to score,” (+210) and “Chelsea to win and Leeds United not to score,” (+170) your minimum profit would be 0.7 units with a possible return of 1.1 units.

This wager does open you to downside, but if you are confident in a Chelsea victory, this is a smarter way to go.

I am asking you to go one step further. My theory would suggest that if Chelsea were to win it would very likely be by a score of 0:1, 0:2, 0:3, 1:2, 1:3, or 1:4.

If that is the case, place a wager on two separate “Multiple Correct Score” bets on BetMGM to cover each scenario and return a possible 2.33 unit profit.

Minimum Profit:

Chelsea to Win: 0.57 Units

Chelsea to Win (Nil Or Leeds Scores): 0.7 units

Chelsea to Win by “Multiple Correct Score” duo: 1.2 units

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