Compared to The Bees' away form, which is one of the worst in the division, the contrast is pretty remarkable.
No team has won more points or scored more goals at home this season in the top-flight. Analysing the data and prices available this weekend, the bookmakers might have misjudged Brentford’s next opponent, Nottingham Forest.
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Brentford Goals at Home Show No Signs Of Stopping
No other team in the Premier League has returned as many points at home as The Bees. Brentford has won 22 of the 24 points available to them in front of home fans. Moreover, over 2.5 goals have landed in seven of eight Brentford home matches. Under the guidance of Thomas Frank, Brentford have netted a remarkable 26 goals, outstripping the second-highest home scorers, Tottenham, by six goals.
The home games at the Gtech Stadium are averaging 5.00 goals per 90. It's no surprise that no other team in the Premier League comes close to matching this remarkable scoring rate. Wolves’ 4.00 goals per 90 is still a full goal away from what we’re witnessing from Brentford.
The data suggests that goals might be ever-present during Brentford home matches. During his pre-match press conference ahead of Tuesday's EFL Cup clash with Newcastle, Thomas Frank highlighted a key concern: maintaining high intensity throughout the full 90 minutes on Wednesday evening. He also emphasized the challenge of sustaining this same level of performance into Saturday afternoon's match.
Regardless, both teams will expect a points return here. Once Brentford scores - which is likely, given they've scored in all eight of their home fixtures - this game should open up, providing Nottingham Forest with opportunities to get into the action.
No longer does this Forest team have to rely on Morgan Gibbs-White to propel this team forward. Players like Jota, Elanga, Ramon Sosa and Elliot Anderson have the remarkable ability to create opportunities out of thin air. That’s a selection of forward players that will give opposing managers sleepless nights.
Fearless Nottingham Forest Finds the Net
Since the international break in October, Saturday's visitors, Nottingham Forest, have become far more generous with their goal-scoring. To start the season, Forest oversaw seven of eight matches that fell under the 2.5-goal line. Only once in those eight games did Forest or their opponents score more than one goal. The first eight fixtures were dominated by 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
However, the trends and data have shifted from October 21st, after Nuno Espirito Santo had time to work with squad members who weren't away on international duty.
The nine matches that followed have seen 27 goals (3.00 goals per 90) and 18 points from a possible 27. During that period, only Chelsea amassed a greater points total, with 20 points. More importantly, from a betting perspective, seven of nine games in this period breached the over 2.5-line.
Away from home this season, Forest have conceded three goals against Manchester United and three at both the Etihad and the Emirates. They also shipped two goals in Brighton. Currently, an away game at Brentford ranks among the toughest trips of the season.
Given Brentford's consistent home performance and Forest's recent form over the past two months, it's worth questioning why the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are set at 1.72.