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Two Clubs Carry Top Value in Premier League

Two Clubs Carry Top Value in Premier League Top Half Betting Market

Choosing the right team can be challenging, as it involves not only selecting the best option but also estimating how many sides above them could fail to meet expectations.

Bookmakers have priced both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth at above 2.00 to end the season as one of the leading ten Premier League teams. Let’s take a closer look at their credentials and assess whether now is the right time to back them.

Premier League Top Half Market

bet365 Odds

Nottingham Forest

2.50

Bournemouth

2.10

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Nottingham Forest: Scheduling Could Be The Biggest Hurdle

Odds of 10.00 to end the season in the top six might be a bit ambitious, but the 2.20 for Nottingham Forest to finish in the top half of the Premier League is a price worth considering. Since their promotion in 2022 and a summer recruitment drive that welcomed 22 incomings, Steve Cooper and Nuno Espirito Santo have struggled to get the best out of this squad. With the additions of Nikola Milenkovic, Elliot Anderson, Jota Silva, James Ward-Prowse, and others this summer, Forest have turned a corner. 

The arrival of these players has brought added competition for spots, influencing Premier League games. They've complemented the likes of Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood, who have been effective and consistent performers at this level. The recruitment has improved, as have the performances on the pitch. Chelsea, Brighton and Liverpool have dropped points against Forest this season, with the latter losing their only game (1/17) under Arne Slot.

Nottingham Forest not only have players performing in attack - Chris Wood has eight goals in just 11 games - but their defensive solidity continues to impress. Forest's ten goals conceded is the lowest total of all Premier League clubs. Only Liverpool (9.47xGA) have accumulated fewer Expected Goals Against (11.41xGA) in this campaign.

However, Forest's scheduling over the next six weeks will be their biggest test so far. With upcoming matches against Arsenal, Man City, Man United, Aston Villa and Tottenham, it is likely that Forest won’t return points as frequently, making a top-six finish a selection to avoid. 

Can Nottingham Forest's defence hold up against the best in the Premier League in this intense, challenging run of games? If they can secure a positive result or two during this stretch, this selection will be one to take.

Bournemouth: The Cherries Are Sweet Enough

Similar to Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth's impressive start to the season has been driven by in-form players and head-turning results against usually stubborn opposition. The Cherries have beaten both Arsenal (2-0) and Man City (2-1), while also taking 19 shots in a defeat at Anfield.

Andoni Iraola is the catalyst for Bournemouth’s success. The Spaniard was brought to the club in controversial circumstances, replacing Gary O'Neil, who showed promise and earned the fans’ appreciation. Replacing a manager in those circumstances is difficult, especially if the new head coach doesn’t make the best start.

Fast forward to 2024/25, and Iraola’s influence is clear. Bournemouth are similar to his Rayo Vallecano side from recent La Liga seasons. Iraola expects his team to put in a lot of effort when not in possession, closing down opposing defences near their own goal in an attempt to regain control in dangerous areas. Bournemouth’s 10.62 PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) this season is the eighth-best in the division, pressing and disrupting opponents before making a defensive move more often than 12 other teams.

Bournemouth are a side that will press and disrupt any team in the division. This style of play unsettles even the bigger teams, such as Manchester City, making the Cherries' approach to Premier League life one that puts them in the mix for a top-half finish at 2.10. 

This team will take to the road with confidence, believing their game plan can succeed even against stronger opponents. Bournemouth will challenge teams and force them into situations where conceding is likely. That is the type of Premier League team you want to back in a market like this - one that is likely to pick up points regardless of the opposition and the venue.

Bournemouth (19.02xG) rank 5th in the league for expected goals, trailing only Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea. They're proving capable of a similar level of attacking output with teams fighting for a Champions League position. If that continues over the entire season, with Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson in forward areas, Bournemouth at 2.10 becomes an enticing top-half prospect.