Inter vs. Atalanta stands out as the top choice, with Inter’s impressive penalty stats and Atalanta’s record of conceding penalties making it a prime candidate for a spot-kick. Meanwhile, Fiorentina vs. Monza and Bologna vs. Empoli also present strong cases for spot kicks.
Fiorentina and Monza’s frequent involvement in penalty scenarios last season, coupled with Empoli’s defensive frailties and Bologna's penalty-drawing abilities, suggest that referees may point to the spot in these matches as well.
- Nine penalties have been awarded in Serie A’s 20 games so far.
- Last season saw 127 penalties, averaging more than one per three games (33.42%).
- Inter have received 15 penalties since the start of last season, with Hakan Calhanoglu converting 14 of them.
| Inter vs Atalanta | Odds |
|---|---|
Penalty To Be Awarded | 2.90 |
Hakan Calhanoglu To Score Anytime | 2.85 |
Penalty To Be Awarded in: | Odds |
Bologna vs Empoli | 2.90 |
Fiorentina vs Monza | 2.90 |
Calhanoglu’s Impeccable Record
Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu has established himself as a dead-eye from the spot. With his goal against Lecce last Saturday, the Turkish international has scored 17 consecutive penalties in Serie A, a remarkable achievement that sets a new league record.
Looking at recent meetings between Inter and Atalanta, penalties have played a notable role. In two of the last four encounters, a penalty has been awarded.
Inter's reputation for drawing penalties is well-known. Last season, the Nerazzurri were awarded 14 penalties, the highest in Serie A, and their aggressive attacking style often forces opponents into making errors in dangerous areas.
Atalanta, on the other hand, had nine penalties given against them. This season, Atalanta has already been involved in two penalties, reflecting a tendency for high-intensity challenges in their games.
Last season, 127 penalties were awarded in Serie A, meaning that just over one in three Serie A games (33.42%) had at least one penalty kick.
After two matchdays, the trend is significantly higher than last season, with nine penalties awarded so far, almost one in every two games (45%), suggesting a 45% chance of a penalty being awarded in any given top-flight Italian game.
In twenty out of Inter’s last forty Serie A matches, a penalty has been awarded (15 for the Nerazzurri and four against them). Whereas Atalanta have received seven penalties in their favour and nine against them.
Therefore, the likelihood of a penalty being given in the Inter vs. Atalanta game is 70%, making the odds of 2.90 for a penalty to be awarded highly appealing.
Fiorentina and Bologna offer great value
Last season, Fiorentina was awarded eight penalties, ranking them among the top half of Serie A teams in this category.
The team is no stranger to penalty drama, with a total of nine penalties given against them during the same period.
Monza, on the other hand, was involved in eight penalties against them last season.
With such a track record, Monza’s matches are likely to feature penalty drama, and the upcoming fixture the Stadio ‘Artemio Franchi’ is no exception.
The combined implied probability for both Fiorentina and Monza to be awarded a penalty kick is 59%, and given the attacking styles of both teams, this bet is worth considering.
Finally, Bologna’s record suggests they are frequently involved in penalty situations. In the 2023/2024 season, Bologna had five penalties awarded in their favour and seven given against them.
This season, Bologna has already been awarded one penalty, but their defence continues to show vulnerability in the box, which led to Udinese taking (but missing) a penalty against the Rossoblu on Match Day one at the ‘Renato Dalll’Ara’.
Empoli’s recent penalty statistics align well with the potential for more of the same in their match against Bologna.
Last season, Empoli saw eight penalties awarded against them while they were awarded five penalties in their favour. Last week, the Tuscan side scored a penalty away from home against a high-calibre team like Roma.
Coupled with Bologna’s tendency to play on the front foot, the probability of seeing a penalty decision in this match is again much higher, at 57.75%, than the current odds suggest.