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Spain vs Croatia Predictions

Spain vs Croatia predictions: Betting Preview for Group B Clash

Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups

Best Bets for Spain vs Croatia

  • Match to be drawn with odds of 3.45 on BC.Game, giving a 29.4% implied probability.
  • Over 2.5 goals with odds of 2.08 on BC.Game, giving a 47.6% implied probability.
  • Álvaro Morata to score anytime with odds of 2.55 on BC.Game, giving a 40% implied probability.

We expect a 2-2 scoreline between Spain and Croatia on Saturday.

Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams

Spain and Croatia face off in their first game of Euro 2024 Group B at Berlin’s Olympiastadion on Saturday evening.

La Roja cruised into the tournament, topping their qualifying group with ease. This squad is not littered with stars like previous major competitions, but there is still plenty of talent at Luis de la Fuente’s disposal, including rising talents Lamine Yamal and Pedri.

Croatia seem to be in a decline after reaching the 2018 World Cup final. Yes, there have been some significant retirements, and Luka Modric is well into his twilight years, but the midfield triumvirate is still one of the best at Euro 2024. They beat Portugal in their final warm-up match and conceded just four goals in qualifying. 

Spain were Nations League champions in 2023, while Croatia received the bronze medal at the 2022 World Cup. This is one of the premier group-stage contests at Euro 2024. 

Probable Lineups for Spain vs Croatia

Spain probable XI:

  • Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Grimaldo; Rodri, Zubimendi, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Olmo.

Croatia probable XI:

  • Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Majer, Petkovic, Perisic. 

Spoils Shared in Berlin

Croatia drew four of their matches at the 2022 World Cup. Spain had four draws at the Euros three years ago, and these teams were scoreless after extra time in the 2023 Nations League final.

These teams are well-matched. Both have been overlooked in the build-up to Euro 2024, partly down to being included in a group with the defending champions, Italy. Knowing third-place could be enough to reach the round of 16, a draw is a solid result for either team, providing they can get the better of Albania.

Spain are heavily favoured by the bookies, but their 1.90 price to win the match at Betway seems too far in their favour. While we aren’t sufficiently confident in the underdogs to back Croatia to win, we think it’s worth taking the match to be drawn at 3.40. 

  • Spain vs Croatia tip 1: Match to be drawn with odds of 3.45 on BC.Game, giving a 29.4% implied probability.

Back the Over

Spain have scored 13 goals in their final three warm-up matches. Croatia have found the net nine times in their last three matches. While most of these fixtures were against inferior opposition, it’s a sign both attacks are firing.

Both teams had good defensive records in qualifying. Spain, though, had a 2-0 loss to Scotland, while Croatia lost 2-1 away to Wales and conceded two goals to Egypt in March. 

This has the makings of an entertaining game for the neutrals with the sheer amount of talent on show. Caution might have been a factor for both teams in previous tournaments, but we think both of these defences can be exploited with the technical ability each team has in midfield. 

  • Spain vs Croatia tip 2: Over 2.5 goals with odds of 2.08 on BC.Game, giving a 47.6% implied probability.

Morata Finds the Net

Scorer in Spain’s 5-1 drubbing of Northern Ireland and with 15 La Liga goals in 21 starts this season, Álvaro Morata is the value pick to score anytime on Saturday. 

Morata’s 0.65 expected goals per 90 in La Liga was the highest of his career. Artem Dovbyk was the only La Liga player with more xG per 90. 

While he has often been criticised for his wastefulness in front of goal, Morata has been a reliable goal scorer for his country. He comes into this tournament off a strong season.

Morata has 35 goals in 73 caps, which is 16 more goals than anyone else in the squad. David Villa, Raul, and Fernando Torres are the only players with more goals for La Roja. 

We’re backing Morata to score his 36th goal for Spain on Saturday evening. He has already scored eight goals at major tournaments, including three at the 2022 World Cup. 

  • Spain vs Croatia tip 3: Álvaro Morata to score anytime with odds of 2.55 on BC.Game, giving a 40% implied probability.