The first weekend saw a marked drop-off in the number of goals per match compared to last season. Is this a sustained trend or a small-sample outcome from the first 10 fixtures?
- There was an average of 2.1 goals per match in the first round of Premier League fixtures.
- Each match averaged just 2.52 expected goals.
- The 2023-24 season saw 3.27 goals per match.
| Fixture | Under 2.5 Odds |
|---|---|
| Brighton vs Manchester United | 2.37 |
| Crystal Palace vs West Ham | 2.00 |
| Fulham vs Leicester | 1.95 |
| Manchester City vs Ipswich | 3.50 |
| Southampton vs Nottingham Forest | 1.87 |
| Tottenham vs Everton | 2.50 |
| Aston Villa vs Arsenal | 2.10 |
| Bournemouth vs Newcastle | 2.40 |
| Wolves vs Chelsea | 2.25 |
| Liverpool vs Brentford | 3.40 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Low-Scoring Opening Weekend
There has been a marked uptick in goalscoring in the Premier League over the last two seasons. Multiple factors are at play, but the trend is impossible to deny. There were 3.27 goals per match in 2023-24 on 3.38 expected goals.
The 2023-24 campaign broke the record set in 2022-23. However, the opening weekend of 2024-25 has seen the league revert back to a normal goal-scoring rate, with just 21 goals scored across the first 10 matches. There was an average of 2.52 expected goals per match after 3.27 expected goals per game last season.
Of course, this could just be a small sample. It could be a case of managers being more cautious at the start of a season. Perhaps players are working off the rust after a busy summer including the Euros, Copa America, and Olympics. Alternatively, this could be the beginning of a league-wide adjustment after defences were thoroughly outplayed by attacks over the past two seasons.
Just three of the opening weekend’s matches generated over 2.5 goals. Last season, 65% of Premier League matches had three or more total goals. Everton were the only team to go over 2.5 in less than half of their games.
Second Weekend Has Betting Value On Unders
Looking ahead to this season and the second round of fixtures, bookies are clearly waiting to see if this trend sustains beyond the first weekend. Fulham hosting Leicester and Nottingham Forest visiting Fulham are the only matches with an odds-on price for under 2.5 goals.
Using last season’s over/under 2.5 goals data, these prices seem pretty fair. These teams regularly hit the over last season. Spurs, for instance, went over 2.5 goals in 71% of their matches, which is reflected in their 2.50 price for under 2.5 against Everton this weekend. Chelsea went over 2.5 in 27 of their 38 fixtures – bookies are predicting goals in their clash with Wolves.
We think there is value to be found, though, given both the outcomes and expected metrics from the first weekend. It might be too early to be certain there is a clear decrease in goalscoring, but it would be a mistake to write off the first weekend as a fluke when bookies are offering such handsome returns on backing under 2.5 goals this weekend.