Liverpool are top of the league as we head into the weekend before Christmas, but Chelsea have closed the gap in recent weeks. The good news for Liverpool fans is that they have performed well over this period in recent years. The same cannot be said for Crystal Palace. However, there are promising fixtures ahead that are likely to deliver goals.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Tottenham vs Liverpool - Liverpool To Win | |
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace - Bournemouth To Win | |
West Ham vs Brighton - Draw | |
Everton vs Chelsea - Both Teams To Score |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Liverpool Have The Edge
As the new year approaches, we’ll be reaching the halfway point of the Premier League campaign, and it’s clear that fixture congestion has had an impact on several teams. We have taken a look at the festive fixture pile-up from the past five seasons and analysed its effect on betting.
Surprisingly, backing fewer goals would have been the best course of action for punters. Flat one-point staking over 2.5 goals in the last five Decembers would have resulted in a loss of 25.42 points. Fortunately, there are still some standout matches for goals as we look for Christmas entertainment.
The Premier League is highly competitive, and that could intensify in the games to come. December has seen its fair share of draws. Placing a one-point bet on every league match this month over the past five seasons would have resulted in an increase of +12.04 points for the punter.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the specific teams and fixtures.
Liverpool
Arne Slot’s side could lose their top spot going into Christmas if they are defeated by Tottenham on Sunday, making this a pivotal match. However, the December data suggests we should see the best of Liverpool. They have won 18 of their 25 matches in the last five festive months in the Premier League, matching Manchester City’s record.
The Reds also have a good record against Tottenham. They have lost just one of the last 14 head-to-heads between the sides. Over that period, Liverpool managed to win 10 of the games, scoring 2.14 goals in the process.
Tottenham have failed to win any of their last three Premier League matches in front of their own fans. They were beaten 4-3 by Chelsea in the last of these fixtures. The Lilywhites are also without a clean sheet in their last seven home matches in the league, so their defence is definitely a concern.
Bournemouth
The Cherries have traditionally performed well in December. They have been the most profitable side for bettors over the last five Decembers, netting a profit of 10.13 points from a single point on each of their fixtures. While they face Manchester United this weekend, the focus is on their Boxing Day match against Crystal Palace.
Bournemouth secured a double over the Eagles last season, keeping a clean sheet in both matches. Ahead of Matchday 17, Andoni Iraola’s side are unbeaten in four matches, winning three. They are currently 6th in the Premier League, just two points behind the reigning champions.
Crystal Palace would have cost bettors 10.45 points on the 1x2 market over the past five December, more than any other side in the division. They won just seven of their 26 matches during that period.
Brighton
The Seagulls have played 25 matches over the studied period and drawn 10 of them. This would have earned punters a solid profit of 10.42 points from flat one-point stakes, the second most in the Premier League. Their clash with West Ham on 21st December could also end all square.
Brighton had been enjoying a blistering start to the season, but their progress has stalled in recent weeks. They have failed to win any of their last four league games, with two of those ending all square. Their most recent away match was a 2-2 draw against Leicester.
The Hammers drew their last Premier League game against Bournemouth. They also drew against Brighton when the sides met at this ground last season.
The Blues’ Games Are Set For Goals
Chelsea
Enzo Maresca’s side have emerged as the dark horses for the Premier League title in recent weeks, but the value could lie in the both teams to score bet when they face Everton this weekend. This bet has been successful in 18 of their 27 matches played over the past five December months, making them the most profitable side in the division for those who want to bet on this market.
The Blues are the Premier League’s top scorers this season, netting an average of 2.31 goals per game. However, clean sheets have been hard to come by. Both teams have scored in 10 of their last 11 league outings.
This bet would have also yielded a 3.2-point profit for those who placed one point on both teams to score in all 25 of Everton’s matches in this period. The Toffees have scored in five of their last six games against Chelsea at Goodison Park. Considering this strong record, backing both teams to score could prove to be wise.