Our expert sees Real winning with relative ease.
Best Bets for Leganes vs Real Madrid
• Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.90 with Parimatch
• Half With Most Goals (2nd Half) at odds of 2.00 with Parimatch
• Over 3.5 Goals at odds of 2.40 with Parimatch
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Real Madrid come into this Copa del Rey quarter-final tie against Leganes after suffering a shock 1-0 defeat to Espanyol in La Liga. Carlo Ancelotti’s men only narrowly retain the top spot in the table, but their lead means they can focus on reaching the last four of the Copa del Rey.
Leganes suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Rayo Vallecano on Friday night, finishing the game with ten men. They will be without the suspended Sergio Gonzalez for Real Madrid’s visit.
Leganes is situated just 11km south-west of central Madrid, making this Copa del Rey quarter-final clash a derby game.
Probable Lineups for Leganes vs Real Madrid
Leganes Expected Lineup: Soriano; Altimira, Hernandez, Sergio, Nastasic, Cisse, Tapia, Munir, Lopez, Brasanac, Garcia
Real Madrid Expected Lineup: Lunin; Vazquez, Garcia, Asencio, Alaba, Modric, Tchouameni, Ceballos, Diaz, Junior, Mbappe
Real to Ease to Victory, but Weakened Backline Gives Hosts a Chance to Score
Unsurprisingly, Real have the upper hand over Leganes in the head-to-head data, with nine wins and just two losses in their last 13 competitive meetings.
Real brushed Leganes aside 3-0 at the Estadio Municipal Butarque in November, and we don’t expect an upset from Los Pepineros in this contest either.
Leganes are in 16th place in La Liga right now, just two points above the relegation places. Meanwhile, in the Copa del Rey’s last 16, Real Madrid thumped Celta Vigo 5-2 at the Bernabeu. Celta are three places and two points better off than Leganes in La Liga, so the signs are ominous, especially if Carlo Ancelotti fields a strong team.
They will be without Antonio Rudiger due to injury, which means a makeshift central defensive pairing is likely. That is why our Leganes vs Real Madrid predictions suggest it’s best to take Real to win without a clean sheet here.
- Leganes vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.90 with Parimatch
2nd Half Goals the Most Likely Outcome
Leganes have been level at half-time in 70% of their games so far this season, though they’ve only been ahead in 10% of them. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have only been level at the interval in 20% of their games this term.
The data suggests that Leganes are slow starters and often prefer to ease their way into games. They will surely aim to frustrate and contain Real as much as possible on Thursday, while also posing a threat on the counter-attack.
Real’s second-half win percentage is 80%. Therefore, our Leganes vs Real Madrid predictions suggest there’s more than a 50% chance of the second 45 featuring more goals than the first 45. This makes betting on the second half to have the most goals a strong value bet.
- Leganes vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Half With Most Goals (2nd Half) at odds of 2.00 with Parimatch
Four or More Goals Anticipated Based on Real’s Copa del Rey Results
Real Madrid have seen four or more goals scored in 50% of their games this season. Similarly, five or more goals have been scored in the same number of games. A quick look at Real’s last two Copa del Rey games shows their attacking fluidity in this competition. They thrashed Deportivo Minera 5-0 and then won 5-2 against Celta Vigo.
Leganes, however, are not prolific scorers. They have averaged just 0.86 goals per game in La Liga this term. They conceded three goals against Real in November, and a similar scoreline is likely this week.
With Rudiger absent and veteran defender David Alaba returning, Real’s defence may lack cohesion. With goals probable at both ends, there’s a strong chance of over 41% that four or more goals will be scored here.
- Leganes vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Over 3.5 Goals at odds of 2.40 with Parimatch