La Liga’s New Trend: The Rise of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals
La Liga, Spain’s top football division, is experiencing a subtle but notable shift in match outcomes that bettors and football enthusiasts alike should pay close attention to.
Unlike its counterparts in Europe’s top five leagues, La Liga has seen a modest yet consistent increase in the proportion of matches ending with Both Teams To Score (BTTS) - Yes and games exceeding 2.5 goals in the early weeks of the 2024/2025 season.
While the sample size is relatively small, consisting of just 39 matches played so far, these early trends could offer valuable insights for betting strategies moving forward.
In this article, we will explore why La Liga is trending towards higher-scoring matches, the implications for betting, and what other trends may be worth noting.
- The number of Both Teams To Score - Yes and Over 2.5 Goals has increased in La Liga compared to last season.
- In 2023/2024 only 46.05% games in Spain’s top flight produced more than two goals.
- All four games played by Celta Vigo have ended with at least three goals being scored and both sides scoring.
La Liga: Matchday 4 | Odds |
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid | Over 2.5 Goals: @ 1.87 |
Girona vs Barcelona | Multi Goals: 3-4 @ 2.23 |
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia | Over 2.5 Goals: @ 1.84 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
More goals galore?
To understand the emerging trend, it's essential to compare La Liga's performance with the other top European leagues: the English Premier League, the German Bundesliga, Italy's Serie A, and France's Ligue 1.
La Liga 2024/2025:
- BTTS – Yes: 51.28% (up from 49.47% last season, after 380 games)
- Over 2.5 Goals: 46.15% (slightly up from 46.05% last season)
- Average Goals per Game: 2.36 (down from 2.64 last season)
Comparison with Europe’s top five leagues:
- Premier League: Current BTTS is 60% (down from 61.58% last season) and Over 2.5 Goals is at 46.67% (significantly down from 64.74%). The average number of goals per game has dropped from 3.28 to 2.77.
- Bundesliga: BTTS stands at 50% (down from 61.76%), with Over 2.5 Goals also at 50% (down from 62.42%). The average goals per game have marginally decreased from 3.22 to 3.11.
- Serie A: BTTS is 46.67% (down from 52.37%) and Over 2.5 Goals is 53.33% (up from 49.21%). The average goals per game have decreased slightly from 2.61 to 2.37.
- Ligue 1: BTTS is currently 55.56% (up from 53.92%), and Over 2.5 Goals matches are also 55.56% (up from 52.94%). The average goals per game have jumped from 2.70 to 3.19.
A deeper look at some of the marquee matches and performances reveals key factors contributing to these trends, including tactical shifts, player performances, and team dynamics.
Notably, teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid, as well as Villareal and Celta Vigo, have played a significant role in influencing these betting markets, and understanding their contributions can help explain the broader trends in Spain’s top flight.
The factors behind the stats
Barcelona's 7-0 demolition of Real Valladolid last weekend is a clear example of how offensive firepower is shaping the early season dynamics in La Liga.
New manager Hansi Flick has rejuvenated Barcelona’s attack, turning them into a relentless scoring machine. The match against Valladolid saw multiple Barcelona players shine, with Raphinha scoring his first career hat-trick, Robert Lewandowski continuing his scoring streak, and the young talent Lamine Yamal providing key assists.
The combination of Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Yamal provides a blend of pace, power, and technical skill that overwhelms defences. Their synergy has been a crucial element in Barcelona’s early dominance, and with each player contributing significantly to goals and assists, Barcelona's matches are increasingly open and high-scoring.
Mbappe’s arrival has seen Real Madrid generate a high number of goal-scoring opportunities. Before his goals against Betis, Mbappe had attempted the most shots in Europe’s top five leagues without scoring, indicating a relentless attacking approach. Such tactics ensure that Madrid’s matches are rich in chances, and as players like Mbappe start converting these opportunities, the likelihood of matches exceeding 2.5 goals increases.
On the back of an extremely successful summer for Spanish football, with victories at the Euros, Olympics and Euro Under 19s, teams in La Liga are continuing to adopt an attacking mindset.
Clubs such as Celta Vigo, whose all four games have ended with Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals, Villareal (75% of games BTTS - Yes and Over 2.5 Goals), who with Marcelino in charge are never afraid to take risks, as well as Alaves, have embraced a more proactive style of play, focusing on ball progression and attacking transitions.
This shift has led to more open matches, as teams are less content with simply sitting back and defending against stronger opposition.
With top teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid setting the tone through their attacking performances, the trend is likely to continue as the season progresses.
For bettors, this trend offers a compelling angle, as the early data suggests that La Liga matches are increasingly open and conducive to goal-scoring, making the goals market an attractive betting option after the international break.