Travel is a factor to consider when looking at Champions League betting markets, and that hasn’t changed with the extended first round of the competition.
Heading into matchday six, Atalanta are the only team with a perfect away record. As a result, there are four home underdogs offering value this week.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Atalanta vs Real Madrid: Atalanta to win | |
Brest vs PSV Eindhoven: Brest to win or draw | |
Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona: Dortmund to win | |
Juventus vs Manchester City: Juventus to win or draw |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Home Advantage Matters
Several home teams can be considered clear underdogs on matchday six of the Champions League. Atalanta, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, and Juventus are all hosting supposedly superior teams, which is reflected in some longer odds.
However, away teams haven’t had an easy time in the Champions League so far. Atalanta are the only side with a 100% record on the road. Twenty-nine of the 36 teams have lost at least one of their away fixtures, including Real Madrid, who have lost both of their away matches.
Brest drew their most recent home Champions League match, sharing the spoils with Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen. Dortmund’s only home defeat this season came in a Klassiker draw with Bayern Munich. Real Madrid have failed to score in both of their Champions League away fixtures and have won four of their 10 away matches across all competitions this term.
Manchester City, who are travelling to Turin to face Juventus, drew away to Crystal Palace at the weekend. They lost their five previous away matches across all competitions, including a 4-1 defeat to Sporting. City have won one match since October 26th, but are still odds-on favourites against Juventus, who have lost only one match all season.
Bookies Underestimating Hosts
Atalanta had an extra day to prepare for this fixture. While Real Madrid’s journey to Lombardy isn’t the most gruelling, the additional time works in Atalanta’s favour. The Serie A outfit have won nine matches in a row across all competitions, while Real are fielding a makeshift backline amid a significant injury crisis. Atalanta are great value to take all three points.
PSV’s form has been impressive, securing a pair of home wins in their last two Champions League matches. However, they are yet to taste victory on the road. While their away games against Juventus and PSG were challenging, their overall away record in European competition remains average. The Dutch club have only won six of their last 20 away fixtures across the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League. Two of those victories were against Sturm Graz.
Barcelona have lost away to Monaco, Osasuna, and Real Sociedad this season. They have only one win in four matches on the road. Given Dortmund’s phenomenal record at Signal Iduna Park, it’s hard to understand why Barcelona are considered clear favourites.
All four of these matches offer great betting opportunities. We would suggest leaning towards the double chance markets for Brest and Juventus, while taking Dortmund and Atalanta to win their respective matches as underdogs.
The bookies seem to be underestimating the importance of home advantage in Europe’s premier club competition. That would make sense if these were complete mismatches, but there’s enough quality in these teams to make us back the four home sides.