Serie A’s Surprise Package: How To Bet On Udinese

Serie A’s Surprise Package: How To Bet On Udinese

Few would have predicted the start of the 2024/25 Serie A season the way it has unfolded, especially for Udinese, a team that narrowly escaped relegation last season. 

Under the guidance of their new coach, Kosta Runjaic, the Friulani have stormed to the top of the table after four matches, a position that seemed unimaginable just months ago. The Pozzo family-owned club, which has seen its fair share of struggles in recent years, now sits at the top of Serie A, leaving fans, pundits, and opponents equally astonished.

While it’s early in the season, Udinese's ascent under Runjaic is no mere coincidence. It's a testament to the pragmatic and methodical approach of their new German manager, who arrived in Udine with little fanfare, but has quickly made a lasting impact. 

But what are the key factors behind this unexpected success, and what challenges lie ahead for Udinese as they aim to sustain this momentum?

1. Udinese narrowly escaped relegation last season with a 1-0 victory over Frosinone in their final match.
2. The last time Udinese topped the league in Italy was in 2011.
3. Udinese won at least three of their first four games in Serie A for the third time in their history, after 2000/2001 and 2014/2015.

Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Pragmatism and meticulous planning

Kosta Runjaic’s rise to the top of Serie A reflects the same sense of surprise as Udinese's impressive current form.

A coach with a journeyman career, Runjaic has crafted his managerial philosophy through various experiences across Europe, including stints in Germany, Poland, and now Italy. His arrival came as a surprise following the departure of Fabio Cannavaro, and few could have predicted the impact he would have.

Runjaic’s strength lies in his ability to read the game and adapt to the players at his disposal. He is not a coach wedded to one rigid system, but rather tailors his tactics to the strengths of his team and the weaknesses of the opposition. 

In the first four matches of the season, Udinese has shown resilience and tactical discipline. Their dramatic 3-2 comeback win over Parma, where they found themselves two goals down, exemplifies the grit and determination Runjaic has instilled in the squad. 

While some may attribute part of their success to luck, they’ve outperformed their xGA (expected goals against) by +3.53, the highest value in Serie A so far. There is no denying that Udinese’s resurgence has been built on a solid foundation of hard work and meticulous preparation.

The Revival of Florian Thauvin

Central to Udinese's success is the outstanding form of the French forward, Florian Thauvin. He arrived with high expectations after his spells with Marseille and a brief stint in Mexico, and has rediscovered his best form under Runjaic. 

Wearing the iconic number 10 shirt, previously donned by club legend Antonio Di Natale, the 2018 World Cup winner has become the talisman of this Udinese side, contributing with three goals and one assist in their early-season surge.

But now, Udinese find themselves in uncharted territory. In the first four matchdays, they’ve won as many games as they did between March and May 2024 and have already doubled the number of home victories (two) compared to last season, when they only beat Bologna at home in December 2023.

In the 2022/2023 season, Udinese also started the campaign very strongly, winning six of their first eight, but eventually faded to finish in 12th position.

The early success has shifted the narrative from survival to ambition. While it may be premature to talk about challenging for a top-seven finish, there is a growing sense that Udinese can aim higher than simply avoiding relegation this season.

The key question is how to approach betting on them before the October international break, when Runjaic’s men face Roma and Inter Milan, as well as Salernitana in the second round of Coppa Italia.

Caution might be needed, considering that in the past two seasons, Asian Handicap betting for Udinese has produced the worst return (-23.2%) among Serie A sides.

However, since 2022/2023, the Friulani have been the ‘kings of draws’ in Italy’s top flight, sharing the points 33 times out of 80 games, more than any other team.

This season, Udinese seem to continue the trend of Both Teams To Score - Yes, with three out of four games so far producing this outcome. In their 1-0 win over Como, the Lariani even missed a last-minute penalty.

With 45 out of the last 80 Udinese Serie A games ending with both teams on the scoresheet, betting on the Friulani to score against Roma at the weekend could be a smart move.

While the early-season form has been remarkable, there are significant challenges that lie ahead for Udinese. One of the main concerns is squad depth. Unlike the traditional powerhouses of Serie A, Udinese do not have the luxury of rotating world-class players in and out of the lineup. 

With no European commitments, Udinese will benefit from a lighter schedule compared to the likes of Roma, Inter, and Juventus, but a few injuries could derail their momentum.