As the margins in top-tier fixtures are often razor-thin, teams like Belgium, France, Germany, and Brazil gearing up without their top players introduces a variable barely accounted for in predictions and betting markets alike.
With high-profile names such as Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Jr, Kevin De Bruyne, and others being left at home due to injuries, let’s look at how these national sides will cope and analyse the nuances of betting strategies that emerge as a consequence.
International Fixtures | Odds |
|---|---|
Italy vs Belgium: Under 2.5 Goals | 1.85 |
Israel vs France: Michael Olise To Score | 2.50 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Germany: Both Teams To Score - Yes | 1.90 |
Chile vs Brazil: Under 2.5 Goals | 1.66 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Belgium: Reinvention in the face of adversity
The absence of Romelu Lukaku, Belgium’s all-time top goalscorer (85 goals), and Kevin De Bruyne (49 assists with the national side) marks a significant transitional phase for Belgium.
Known for being pivotal figures in Belgium's 'Golden Generation,' their absence is a significant void to fill. In the last two and a half years, Les Diables Rouges have been without both players on just one occasion, during their 1-0 win against Poland in the Nations League group.
Domenico Tedesco, the Belgian coach, will rely on a new wave of talent—Malick Fofana, Cyril Ngonge, Matte Smets, and Maarten Vandevoordt—to navigate through the Nations League matches against Italy and France.
From a betting perspective, the absence of these stars may incline bookmakers to elevate the odds on a Belgian victory. This presents an opportunity for strategic betting on Asian Handicaps or low-scoring games, considering the newcomers' hunger to make a mark.
The stakes are high for Belgium to maintain their seeding in upcoming World Cup qualifiers, prompting an expectation that collective teamwork and emerging talents like Smets or Ngonge could produce significant moments.
France: Without their crown jewels
France will need to rely on their squad depth without Kylian Mbappé. Despite the Real Madrid striker scoring just twice in France's last 12 games, his influential presence is often a game-changer. Nonetheless, the French squad has considerable depth, with Michael Olise earning his third cap to fill some of the creative void left by both Mbappé and the newly-retired Antoine Griezmann.
While the team does not lack talent, it may be difficult to recreate the synergy and flair that Mbappé and Griezmann bring to the game.
The last time Les Bleus did not feature either of the two players was in November 2013 when they beat Ukraine 3-0 in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, as Mbappé was 14 at the time.
For betting enthusiasts, this setup could tempt an analytical approach to under bets in terms of goals scored, given the reduction in the team’s attacking firepower.
On the flip side, if Olise carries his current form with him (six goals and three assists for Bayern), betting on two French victories or the former Crystal Palace winger rising to the occasion with a significant contribution may be worthwhile—a high-stakes gamble, yet with the potential for high returns.
Germany: Navigating through the injury plague
Germany enter this international break without several key players, including Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala.
Head coach Julian Nagelsmann will be hard-pressed to address these setbacks with tactical ingenuity, opting for replacements such as Jonathan Burkardt and Kevin Schade, who will have a point to prove after a positive start of the Bundesliga season.
For Germany, the betting market could be unpredictable.
The absence of seasoned players opens doors for higher odds on Germany conceding goals or dropping points against Bosnia or the Netherlands.
It’s feasible to anticipate a conservative approach from Nagelsmann as he consolidates his lineup, which could steer bettors towards exploring handicap markets or low-scoring draws.
Brazil: Samba without the star
Brazil's prospects are shaken with Vinicius Jr and Éder Militão sitting out the qualifiers against Chile and Peru. Coach Dorival Junior calls upon players like Fulham's Andreas Pereira (one goal this season with Fulham) to supply the needed creativity.
Yet, these changes inherently unsettle Brazil’s typical attacking dominance.
Considering Brazil's need for World Cup qualification points, the strategy could be prudently defensive, favouring goal prevention rather than flamboyant attacking play.
You might lean towards betting on narrower scorelines or alternative goal scorers, such as Gabriel Martinelli (only two goals with the Seleçāo, but twice on the scoresheet in the last three games played with Arsenal) steering away from the usual high-scoring expectations associated with the five-time World Cup champions.