With the Euro 2024 knockout stages well underway, our expert is here to point out something the bookmakers have gotten wrong so far.
There is no shortage of attacking talent on display at Euro 2024. As we enter the final stretch in Germany, only the very best remain. Whether it’s the established talents like Harry Kane, Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe taking to the field or the up-and-comers in Jamal Musiala and Jude Bellingham, fans expect goals.
However, the best approach for bettors as we enter the quarter-final stage may be to ignore your heart and follow your head.
Don’t Count on Goals in the Knockouts
Most will want the later knockout matches at major tournaments to resemble a prize fight in boxing. A couple of heavyweights taking shots at one another for 90 minutes with goals and intrigue at both ends.
The reality is often a little different. Pragmatism is the name of the game for most when we get to the business end of a major tournament. The need to not lose overcomes the desire to win. After all, penalties await.
In six Round of 16 matches we’ve seen so far, a total of 12 goals were scored in 90 minutes - five of them came in the biggest mismatch in Germany and Spain’s 4-1 demolition of Georgia.
That is reflected in the betting markets. The expected goal lines dropped off as we entered the final stretch but even then, they were higher than they should have been.
As outlined in the table, the Spain vs Georgia fixture is the only match so far that went above the bookmakers’ expected goal line. Backing under 2.5 goals with a single unit in each Round of 16 match so far would have led to a profit of +2.94 units.
Fixture | Pre-Match goal line | Under 2.5 Goals Odds | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
Switzerland vs Italy | 2.00 | 1.48 | 2 |
Germany vs Denmark | 2.50 | 1.89 | 2 |
England vs Slovakia | 2.25 | 1.69 | 2 |
Spain vs Georgia | 2.75 | 2.28 | 5 |
France vs Belgium | 2.50 | 1.79 | 1 |
Portugal vs Slovenia | 2.75 | 2.09 | 0 |
An average of 2.25 goals were scored in the group stage at Euro 2024. In the knockout stages so far, that figure has dropped to 2.0 despite Spain’s outlying 4-1 win over Georgia.
But this is nothing new at major tournaments. Backing under 2.5 goals with a single unit at every knockout match at the Euros since 2000 would have returned +3.23 units. Backing under 2.5 in every group match would have lost 3.67 units.
This may be worth considering for the rest of the tournament.