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Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
- Bayer Leverkusen to win with odds of @1.77 on Parimatch, equating to a 56.5% implied probability.
- Over 3.5 total goals with odds of @ 2.25 on Parimatch, equating to a 44.4% implied probability.
- Lois Openda to score anytime with odds of @ 2.90 on Parimatch, equating to a 34.5% implied probability.
We predict Bayer Leverkusen will beat RB Leipzig by a score of 3-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday night. This is the second round of Bundesliga matches in 2024-25 with the hosts looking to defend their title after a spectacular 2023-24 season under the stewardship of Xabi Alonso.
It was a winning start to the new campaign for Bayer Leverkusen. The three points were claimed in dramatic fashion. After relinquishing a two-goal lead to Borussia Monchengladbach, Leverkusen stole the victory in the 100th minute, thanks to a late goal from Florian Wirtz.
This summer has been a solid one for Leverkusen. Advances from elsewhere were rejected by Alonso, and their core players have remained at the club. Additions of Martin Terrier and Aleix Garcia provide necessary depth as Alonso’s side aim to challenge on multiple fronts once again.
Aside from a late red card for Willi Orban, Leipzig’s opening match of the season was markedly less eventful. Antonio Nusa scored the only goal of the game as Die Roten Bullen beat Bochum 1-0.
Nusa was the club’s marquee offseason addition. The sale of Dani Olmo to Barcelona seemed inevitable after the Spaniard’s heroics at the Euros. However, his departure leaves a gaping hole in a Leipzig team, which was way off the pace set by Leverkusen and Bayern Munich last season.
Probable Lineups for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen probable XI:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Andrich, Grimaldo; Hofmann, Wirtz; Boniface.
RB Leipzig probable XI:
Gulacsi; Henrichs, Klostermann, Lukeba, Raum; Seiwald, Kampl; Simons, Haidara; Sesko, Openda.
Home Win For Champions
Leverkusen won the league at a canter last season. Unbeaten and with 17 more points than anyone else, it was a history-making campaign from Xabi Alonso’s side. Their win over Gladbach last weekend suggested they have picked up where they left off.
Leipzig have lost their last three matches to Leverkusen. Their expected goal difference per 90 was 0.54 behind Leverkusen’s last season, and the loss of Dani Olmo leaves them markedly weaker.
We really can’t look past Leverkusen in this match. They were utterly dominant at home last season, with a +1.63 expected goal difference per 90. Leipzig were okay on the road, but that’s not enough to get a result at the BayArena.
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Bet 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win @ 1.77 with Parimatch.
Goals Galore At BayArena
Bayer Leverkusen won both matches against RB Leipzig last season by a scoreline of 3-2. A total of 10 goals across the two fixtures contributes to the total goals line being set at 3.5 for Saturday’s encounter.
It was another goal fest for Leverkusen to start the season, running out 3-2 winners over Borussia Monchengladbach. Three of their last four home matches in 2023-24 went over this line.
The 2.25 in this market represents superb value. Leverkusen’s attack was in excellent form last weekend, and we expect Leipzig to get sucked into another end-to-end match. It should be a fun one for the neutrals.
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Bet 2: Over 3.5 total goals @ 2.25 with Parimatch
Openda Makes It Three In Three Against Leverkusen
Just three Bundesliga players clocked more expected goals per 90 than Lois Openda last season. The Belgian was third in total league goals behind Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy.
Leverkusen might have won both matches against Leipzig, but the underdogs still scored four times. Openda got two of those goals. His electric pace and off-ball movement are a constant threat, particularly against a team as comfortable in possession as Leverkusen.
While he didn’t get on the scoresheet last weekend, Openda still fired off three shots, which was the joint-most in the match. His expected goals total last season was second only to Harry Kane's – we like the value on Openda to score anytime in a high-scoring match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Bet 3: Lois Openda to score anytime @ 2.90 with Parimatch.