Yet, not all the teams are reaping the same rewards from their in-game substitutions.
After eleven matchdays, some interesting trends have emerged, and understanding them could prove useful for tackling the upcoming fixtures from a betting perspective.
Premier League: Match Day 11 | Odds |
|---|---|
Everton vs Brentford: Second Half Under 1.5 Goals | |
Southampton vs Liverpool: Second Half Result: Liverpool | |
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace: Second Half Under 1.5 Goals |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Not all subs are the same
While goals are the most obvious measure of success, assists and overall participation in goal-scoring situations provide a deeper view of a substitute's influence.
Substitutes have been involved in 80 goals so far, making up 25.47% of the league’s total goals. This is a notable increase from last season’s 22.47%, highlighting a growing tactical dependence on bench depth that is influencing match outcomes.
However, not all teams are benefiting equally. Newly promoted Southampton and Ipswich have scored just four goals each in the second half, with Everton close behind on five and Crystal Palace on six.
Surprisingly, Liverpool, despite leading the league, have not seen any goals from substitutes, much like Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton, who are currently in the relegation zone.
Tottenham present an interesting case: although they lead in second-half goals with 14, only one of those has come from a substitute. This follows a similar trend seen with Everton and Southampton.
Meanwhile, Tottenham’s manager Ange Postecoglou can boast four assists from his bench, showing effective use of his squad, though not fully maximised.
Southampton’s Substitution Struggles
A closer look unveils different strategies and their varying effectiveness.
Crystal Palace emerges as a stark example with zero contributions from substitutes in terms of goals and assists, underlining a challenge for their manager, Oliver Glasner, in maximising squad depth after the summer sales of Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen.
Liverpool’s sole contribution from the bench is a single assist, albeit with 46 of a possible 55 substitutions used by manager Arne Slot. However, these subs have amassed only 1.92 expected goals (xG) and a mere 0.73 expected assists, posing questions about their impact.
Southampton's numbers are more worrying. Saints boss Russell Martin utilises his full squad with 53 changes and a notable 1,189 cumulative minutes for subs—the second-highest in the league. Yet the on-pitch impact remains minimal with just 1.52 expected goals and 1.15 expected assists.
This is evidence of the adaptation struggles of newly-promoted teams grappling with top-tier standards.
Everton have opted for a more conservative approach with just 31 substitutes playing 537 minutes in total—the second-fewest after Leicester City—averaging 17 minutes per sub. Despite limited time, Everton’s subs show promise with an xG of 2.3, suggesting Sean Dyche’s men haven’t been clinical enough in the later stages of games.
A Silver Lining for Pep
In a season marred by injuries, Manchester City’s options from the bench have been limited.
Manager Pep Guardiola has executed only 35 changes, the second-fewest in the league. The Spaniard prefers to operate with a tighter squad but they’ve been hit by the injuries to key players like Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, with significant performances also missed from John Stones, Jack Grealish, and, most recently, Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku.
City’s substitutes show contrasting numbers: a low xG of 0.9 juxtaposed by 2.15 expected assists, illustrating that Guardiola can still count on some quality replacements.
City’s substitute numbers contrast sharply with Liverpool who have had just 10 chances created by subs compared to City’s 20.
Numbers suggest that if the Citizens can navigate this challenging period, a comeback in the league remains feasible.
Key Betting Insights
Looking at this weekend’s fixtures through the lens of substitute efficacy presents intriguing possibilities for bettors.
Everton's clash with Brentford offers a strategic view: both teams have struggled with substitute-contributed assists and chances.
Given Everton’s meagre home scoring record (five goals) bettors might find value in wagering on a low-scoring second half or a double chance for the visitors.
Southampton vs Liverpool presents another intriguing scenario. With substitutes less likely to impact the second half, placing a bet on Liverpool to maintain a clean sheet or secure a narrow second-half win emerges as a viable option.
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace travel to face Aston Villa, a side whose substitutes have created the highest xG (4.18). Palace’s poor away record, with zero wins so far, suggests Villa are likely to take the lead and keep it.