Six reasons why England WON'T win Euro 2024: From defensive deficiencies to Gareth Southgate's cowardly conservatism

Luke Shaw only made 15 appearances in all competitions for Manchester United last season. Worse still, he hasn't played a single minute of competitive football since February 18. And yet he's the only orthodox left-back in England's squad, which is both a damning indictment of the options available to Southgate and a serious source of concern going into the Euros.

Given the weakness of their group, England should get away with fielding a right-footer on the left-hand side of the defence in the first round, affording Shaw time to work on his match fitness. But what happens if he's not fully up to speed by the time the Three Lions face a quality team, such as France? Would you really have any faith in the error-prone Kieran Trippier or a converted centre-back like Joe Gomez or Ezri Konsa adequately dealing with Ousmane Dembele?

Shaw is said to be "progressing well" in his recovery from his hamstring problem, but if he's not at 100 percent by the time the knockout stage rolls around, England will be seriously compromised at left-back - both from a defensive and offensive perspective. His fragile physical condition could prove the difference between success and failure at a wide-open tournament likely to be decided by fine margins.

How weak are England in the centre of defence? Well, the unavailability of Harry Maguire through injury constitutes a hammer blow. Yes, the situation is that dire.

With Maguire's participation having been in doubt from the moment his season was brought to a premature end by a calf problem, Southgate sought desperately to find alternatives. He called up pretty much every eligible centre-back in England for his preliminary squad.

The hope remained that Maguire would recover in time to travel to Germany, but when it emerged that the 31-year-old had little hope of being fit to play any part in the group stage, Southgate was forced to cut one of his most reliable servants. Indeed, for all Maguire's faults - and he has many - he was one of England's better players at the 2022 World Cup, so his absence represents a major headache for Southgate.

Marc Guehi is likely to fill the void alongside John Stones at heart of the defence, which is hardly reassuring. Crystal Palace centre-back Guehi is untested at this level - he's started just six competitive fixtures for England - while Stones featured for just 21 minutes of Manchester City's final seven games of the Premier League season.

If Stones isn't sharp enough for a major tournament, Lewis Dunk, Konsa or Gomez could come into the starting line-up... They say that defences win titles - for England's sake, that better not be true!

Southgate said before the friendly against Iceland that he was unlikely to start Ivan Toney up front as his priority was getting Harry Kane "right" for Euro 2024, with the Bayern Munich star having missed the end of the season with a niggling back problem.

Kane did come off the bench - and score - in the preceding game against Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it's clear that the former Tottenham striker is not exactly at 100 percent now. Southgate will, thus, be praying that Kane does not suffer a setback at any stage over the next month, as the 30-year-old is utterly irreplaceable.

Ollie Watkins is a wonderful, all-around attacking talent coming off the back of a fine season at Aston Villa, but did not impress in the Bosnia game and doesn't yet boast anything like the same quality and experience as his captain. Toney, meanwhile, is one of the most overrated players in the Premier League and is absolutely blessed just to have made the squad, having missed the first half of the season through suspension and scored just four times in the second.

England may have a plethora of options in attack, but any injury issue for Kane would be an absolute disaster.

Southgate admitted last month that he remains unsure on the make-up of his midfield pivot. "In the last few months I've been thinking: 'Declan with who?'" he said. "And: 'Who if without Declan?'"

The latter question doesn't bear thinking about. Declan Rice has been a constant in the starting line up for the past four years; England would be lost without a player that has added to his game since joining Arsenal last summer. Indeed, there's even a case to be made that Rice would be better deployed as a No.8.

However, that's just not going to happen, as England are painfully short on options in front of the back four. Poor Kalvin Phillips has suffered a dramatic decline since joining Manchester City, while Jordan Henderson ruined his career - and his reputation - by moving to Saudi Arabia last summer. Consequently, neither man made the provisional panel.

It now seems highly likely that Southgate must put his faith in Trent Alexander-Arnold, a right-back by trade, or pick one of Kobbie Mainoo, Conor Gallagher or Adam Wharton to play alongside Rice. Mainoo and Wharton are players of enormous potential, while Gallagher did something remarkable last season by managing to shine in a terrible Chelsea team.

But Mainoo and Wharton have four caps between them, while Gallagher was an unused substitute at Qatar 2022, meaning he has no experience of major tournament football either. No matter what way you dress it up, this is not an ideal situation for England to be in, given the importance of the pivot to both protecting Southgate's vulnerable defence, and affording the forwards the freedom to focus on attacking.

Arguably not since the playing days of Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard has the English footballing world been so consumed with a positional debate, with all national team fans presently asking: how best to fit Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham into the same line up?

The problem is obvious: both players excel in the same central position. Many supporters and pundits would like to see the pair deployed as twin No.10s in a 4-3-3 formation, with just Rice stationed in front of the back four. But as Southgate's earlier comments indicate, there's no chance of that happening. The England boss is going to persist with his double pivot, meaning only one of Foden and Bellingham will get to play in his preferred position behind Kane.

The smart money is on Bellingham. After all, he's "exploded" at Real Madrid after being bestowed with the "freedom" to play further forward by Carlo Ancelotti, while Foden is the slightly more flexible of the two. He's well used to playing - or at least starting - wider for Manchester City.

However, Foden was the best player in the Premier League this season precisely because he was deployed through the middle, and there's a real risk that his attacking threat will be curbed by being selected on the flank.

One could obviously argue that it's one of those 'welcome selection headaches': having to choose between two top-class talents. However, Southgate needs to put an end to this potentially distracting debate by finding a way to get the best out of both Bellingham and Foden, given he's long been accused of failing to make the most of the attacking arsenal at his disposal...

Southgate remains an immensely popular figure within English football. He's the nice guy that united a nation, restoring pride in the Three Lions by fostering an endearing team spirit in an exciting set of predominantly young players.

The results have been good, too. He has the second-best record of any English manager ever and has led the country to the last four of a World Cup (2018) and the final of a European Championship (2021). However, doubts have begun to creep in because of Southgate's conservatism.

Even before England failed to beat a France team that were there for the taking in the quarter-finals of the 2022 World Cup, there were complaints that they were playing with the handbrake on. Consequently, there were mounting calls after Qatar for Southgate to let his players off the leash; to take more risks, to be bolder, both with his starting line ups and in-game changes. England, remember, inexplicably retreated after taking an early lead in the Euro 2020 final against Italy and cowardice cost them the game. The widespread fear is that they will be once again punished for pragmatism in Germany.

They will arrive as many people's favourites to prevail, not least because they're not scheduled to face a group winner until the semi-finals. However, England are going to have to face strong opposition at some point and Southgate struggles against top teams. Indeed, in 25 clashes with European powerhouses such as France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Croatia, Italy and Spain, he has emerged victorious on only six occasions.

England undeniably have a glorious chance to win a first major trophy since 1966 - but is Southgate really brave enough to take it? Because the time for excuses is over. Nothing less than victory will suffice for Southgate. Injuries and misfortune could all play a part, but if England don't win the Euros, the manager will be the main reason why.