The Premier League have changed how they calculate stoppage time. The aim is to limit matches to a total of 100 minutes, which is bound to impact the decisions bettors make throughout the campaign.
- The 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons were the highest-scoring in Premier League history.
- Added time in the last two seasons was over three minutes higher than prior campaigns.
- Referees have new directives for calculating stoppage time in the Premier League in 2024-25.
| Fixture | Under 2.5 Odds |
|---|---|
Brigton vs Manchester United | |
Crystal Palace vs West Ham | |
Fulham vs Leicester | |
Manchester City vs Ipswich | |
Southampton vs Nottingham Forest | |
Tottenham vs Everton | |
Aston Villa vs Arsenal | |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle | |
Wolves vs Chelsea | |
Liverpool vs Brentford |
League Alters Stoppage-Time Regulations
Last season’s matches averaged over 10 total minutes of stoppage time. The league, with pressure from the PFA, will be aiming to keep matches under 100 total minutes in 2024-25.
Among the changes, there is a 30-second window after each goal where no time will be added. Previously, the stoppage time ‘clock’ began when the ball hit the net until the game resumed. If it takes longer than 30 seconds for the match to get back underway due to celebrations or VAR, then that time will still be added.
In general, we can expect to see officials be slightly more lenient with stoppage time. There was a marked increase over the last couple of seasons following rule changes from governing bodies. Notably, UEFA was already producing fewer stoppage-time minutes in the Champions League and Euro 2024. Look for Premier League matches to adopt a similar pattern in the 2024-25 campaign and beyond.
One of the biggest knock-on effects of longer matches was the number of late goals. Neutrals were treated to late-game drama, and over backers were generally the beneficiaries. The last two Premier League seasons were the highest-scoring in league history – reducing match durations by even a few minutes could drastically decrease the number of goals over the course of a season.
Betting Impact Of Shorter Matches
The over proved to be very profitable in 2023-24. Of the 20 Premier League teams, 19 went over 2.5 goals in more than half of their matches. Everton were the exception to the rule.
Inevitably, both teams to score proved a profitable bet, too. Bookies adjusted to this, with BTTS generally being priced at short odds, knowing that teams had additional time to find the net, whether in the search of a late equaliser or snatching a consolation.
There’s no doubt that shortening Premier League matches alters how we should approach betting on goals markets. It likely works in the favour of underdogs, too, with the deeper squads of the top clubs being in their favour the longer matches run and the more time substitutes have to make an impact.
This weekend, it might give Everton an edge to secure a result at Tottenham or make the under especially appealing at 2.50. While this refereeing change will not impact every Premier League match, it’s going to be a marked difference for bettors across the length of a 38-game season.