Is Now the Time to Start Opposing Injury-Hit Liverpool?

After scans confirmed Alisson Becker's hamstring injury, sidelining him for six weeks, Liverpool's fans and football analysts alike are questioning whether now is the time to bet against Arne Slot’s side.

More challenges loom, with midfield dynamo Alexis Mac Allister also nursing a groin issue, potentially missing crucial upcoming fixtures.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Kelleher’s numbers suggest optimism

This season alone, Alisson has already missed two games due to a hamstring issue, underscoring an unfortunate trend that saw him absent for ten Premier League matches last campaign.

His current injury will see him miss key fixtures against strong opponents such as Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton, and Aston Villa, coupled with crucial Champions League games against RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen.

The Seleçao’s number one is synonymous with a secure defensive record, allowing an average of 0.9 goals per match and achieving a clean sheet in 43% of his appearances.

His consistency has been crucial for the Reds, who have conceded just twice in their opening seven Premier League games under Arne Slot.

Despite these challenges, Liverpool's win percentage has surprisingly been higher in Alisson’s absence since 2018, winning 74.1% of games compared to 66.3% with him.

With Caoimhin Kelleher set to fill Alisson's gloves, history suggests the Reds' resilience could once again shine through.

The Republic of Ireland international has long been regarded as one of the best backup goalkeepers in the Premier League, often drawing praise for his composure, technical ability, and penchant for crucial saves.

Statistically, Kelleher has performed admirably when called upon. He has shown an impressive save percentage of 74.3% over his 16 Premier League starts.

Last season, Kelleher's ability to prevent goals exceeded expectations, as he maintained a higher save percentage than Alisson, averaging 3.3 saves per match compared to Alisson's 2.4.

In 2023/2024, Kelleher's overperformance against expected goals on target (xGOT) further underscores his potential.

The Irishman prevented three goals beyond what statistics suggest, enhancing his reputation as a capable and reliable goalkeeper.

Strength in adversity

Liverpool begin their post-international break campaign at Anfield against Chelsea, a revitalised side under Enzo Maresca, who have the best shot conversion rate (16.67%) in the Premier League and whose xG (expected goals) are higher than the Reds’.

The landscape is further complicated by the injuries to Alexis Mac Allister and Harvey Elliott.

The Argentine’s influence has been profound; he leads Liverpool with 18 tackles in the Premier League and is integral to winning back possession, having done so 36 times.

Additionally, his ability to create scoring opportunities and his impressive 81% pass completion rate in the final third have been vital.

Partnered with Ryan Gravenberch, Mac Allister's performance has been central to Liverpool's success.

Elliott's absence adds another layer of complexity. Known for his energetic play and adaptability, Elliott's injury deprives Liverpool of a versatile midfield option.

Liverpool's fixture list does not offer any respite. Following Chelsea, they are pitted against RB Leipzig in the Champions League and then title rivals Arsenal at the Emirates—two fixtures where Mac Allister's dynamism might be sorely missed.

A double-header against Brighton & Hove Albion, home and away (in the Carabao Cup), adds further strain, before travelling to face Bayer Leverkusen.

Their period concludes with a crucial home match against Aston Villa, a side also vying for a top-four spot.

Yet, Liverpool's history of resilience and adaptability suggests they are more than capable of navigating this adversity.

How they perform in this stretch will provide clear insights into their title credentials and how they might handle the demands of a long and demanding season.