AC Milan's season took an unexpected turn after the club decided to part ways with Paulo Fonseca and bring in Sergio Conceiçao as the new head coach.
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Where Did All Go Wrong for Fonseca?
Paulo Fonseca's tenure at Milan was a rollercoaster marked by inconsistent performances.
AC Milan secured notable victories over Inter Milan in the derby and Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. However, they have often struggled against weaker opponents.
Fonseca struggled to maintain control within the dressing room, especially when dealing with key players such as Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao.
His inability to instill a clear style of play was exposed not just by poor results but also by internal frictions.
The Portuguese manager led AC Milan to 12 wins, six draws, and six losses across all competitions, averaging only 1.75 points per game.
The Rossoneri have the seventh-best attack in Serie A. Despite having a game in hand, they have underperformed their expected goals (xG) by 5.36.
A new approach under Coinçecao
The former Porto manager is renowned for his tactical discipline and pragmatism, which are the qualities that made him the most successful manager in the history of os Dragões.
His preferred formations are 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, and he prioritizes defensive solidity and quick transitions, which are the two areas where AC Milan fell short under Fonseca.
Conceiçao’s expertise in managing physically demanding squads could prove crucial for a team that requires toughness and competitive spirit.
Moreover, his straightforward approach might be what’s needed to get the best out of inconsistent talents like Rafael Leao, bringing renewed focus and motivation.
How to bet on the Rossoneri
Our in-house tool predicts a significant improvement for the Rossoneri under Conceiçao, with projections around 1.90 points per game, which is a clear upgrade from the 1.58 under Fonseca.
Our model indicates AC Milan still have a 29.8% chance of finishing in the top four by the end of the season.
With managerial changes benefiting other Serie A sides this season, like Lecce and Genoa, bettors might find value in backing Milan's resurgence.
The current market odds for a top-four finish are high and offer a good opportunity for those who believe in Conceiçao's positive influence.
Milan's campaign in the Champions League showed promise under Fonseca even after losing their first two games.
After matchday six, Milan’s odds of securing a direct knockout stage qualification are set at 54.8%.
Upcoming fixtures against teams like Girona and Dinamo Zagreb present an opportunity to solidify their position. Furthermore, the team may gain an extra psychological and strategic advantage under Conceiçao.
Conceiçao's extensive European experience is a major asset. His ability to manage tight games makes AC Milan a value bet for the upcoming Italy Super Cup in Saudi Arabia this week.
Conceiçao has won eight major finals with Porto and boasts a 46% win ratio in European competition.
The former Inter Milan and Lazio winger has led Porto to the Champions League knockout stage on six out of seven occasions. He also has a good record against Italian sides, with just three defeats in 10 matches.