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Marseille a Value Bet for Ligue 1

Are Marseille a value bet for the 2024/25 Ligue 1 title with their forward line?

Marseille finished a whopping 26 points adrift of the eventual champions, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) and nine points short of the fourth and final UEFA Champions League qualification spot.

Following the disastrous managerial spell of Gennaro Gattuso, former Ivory Coast head coach, Jean-Louis Gasset took the reins on an interim basis. Gasset’s retirement this summer resulted in the club turning to former Brighton & Hove Albion boss, Roberto De Zerbi, to mastermind a rebirth of the club. Looking at their attacking options for the 2024/25 season, there’s an argument to suggest Les Olympiens have a more potent set of attacking options than the defending champions PSG.

  • Elye Wahi was in Ligue 1’s 98th percentile for xG in 2023/24
  • Mason Greenwood had 0.47 goal involvements per 90 minutes in 2023/24 La Liga
  • Moumbagna’s opening-day ACL rupture could hit Marseille hard
Ligue 1 MarketsMarseille OddsPSG Odds

Ligue 1 Winner

10.05

1.33

Top 4 Finish

1.50

1.01

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

De Zerbi has put his faith in dynamic duo Greenwood and Wahi

After several weeks of lengthy negotiations, De Zerbi eventually secured the Lens striker, Elye Wahi, on a deal worth up to €30 million. The 21-year-old was the club’s second choice recruit after being priced out of a move for Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah.

Nevertheless, there’s a lot to like about Wahi. He finished 23/24 with 0.55 xG per 90 minutes, putting him in the league’s top 2% for goalscoring output. Also, he registered 0.63 xG + xA per 90 minutes, putting him in the top 6% for Ligue 1’s best goal contributors.

The controversial signing of Mason Greenwood from Manchester United has further bolstered Marseille’s attack. Greenwood enjoyed a fruitful season-long loan with La Liga side, Getafe, in 2023/24. The 22-year-old finished with a goal contribution every other game, with eight goals and six assists in 33 appearances.

Although Marseille enjoyed a fantastic opening day win over Brest, which saw their Ligue 1 title odds cut to 9.00, the early-season optimism will have been tempered by a serious knee injury to Faris Moumbagna. It leaves them heavily reliant on Wahi and Greenwood. However, if reports are to be believed, a loan move for Everton’s Neal Maupay could be in the offing to provide experienced back-up, making those title odds more appealing again.

Do PSG have more depth in attack than Les Olympiens?

It’s fair to say Marseille’s front line has the potential to be just as deadly as PSG’s. The champions could also be without Goncalo Ramos for a period of months after sustaining a serious ankle injury in the season opener.

Presently, PSG can only call upon Randal Kolo Muani at centre forward, with Bradley Barcola a possible makeshift striker. Keeping Kolo Muani fit will be vital, given that he was in Ligue 1’s top 2% of goal contributors per 90 minutes last season. Youngster, Ilyes Housni, is surely too young to be entrusted to lead the line for the Ligue 1 title contenders.

All of this suggests PSG’s current odds of 1.33 to defend their crown could be somewhat thin unless they dip into the transfer market before the end of August.