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UCL Winner Prediction & Group Picks: Champions League Odds & Draw Reaction 2022-2023

20:51 BST 26/08/2022
PSG Lionel Messi Neymar
Manchester City are the favourites to win the Champions League for the first time, but they will face stiff competition from PSG

The 2022-23 Champions League draw has officially taken place, and we have some intriguing groups that should provide months of exciting competition. Real Madrid will look to defend their UCL title, despite the recent loss of midfielder Casemiro to Manchester United.

So, where is the best value of the board across UCL betting lines? Let’s look at each group, determine who is most likely to qualify for the second round, and identify the best bets for the Champions League.

All odds and bets are provided courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook as of Thursday, Aug. 25, at 6 p.m. ET, unless otherwise noted.

Champions League Winner Best Bet

Paris Saint-Germain (+500)

Messi looks rejuvenated with PSG, who arguably have the most talented offense in the world.

This is the year they shed the title of “Champions League Choker” and claim the prize as the best team in Europe.

Manchester City, who have their own demons to battle through in this competition, pose a legitimate chance to win it all. However, at (+275), they do not provide as much value.

UCL Group A Odds

  • Liverpool (-250)
  • Ajax Amsterdam (+450)
  • SSC Napoli (+450)
  • Rangers (+2800)

Group A is among the most balanced in the entire competition. Liverpool is the odds-on favorite as the top club to emerge, but there is a real possibility that Ajax, Napoli, and even the Rangers could make some noise.

Group A Winner Pick: Liverpool (-250)

Jürgen Klopp led Liverpool to the Champions League final last season, falling short to Real Madrid 1-0. However, the Premier League side is off to an undesirable start to their domestic football schedule following the loss of Sadio Mané.

However, Portuguese striker Darwin Núñez has already shown sparks of genius, and there is little doubt Liverpool will find their top form soon enough.

Bank on the Reds to make it out of Group A and challenge for their seventh UCL title.

Group A to Advance: SSC Napoli

Napoli finished third in Serie A last season but find themselves on top of the table through the first three weeks. Look for the Blues, led by Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen and 21-year-old winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to upset Ajax as the second team to qualify out of Group A.

UCL Group B Odds

  • Atletico Madrid (-120)
  • FC Porto (+275)
  • Bayer Leverkusen (+300)
  • Club Brugge (+2000)

FC Porto may create the best value on the board as a (+275) Pot 1 underdog to Atletico Madrid. Group B is made even more intriguing with the addition of Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen, who have the ability to beat any side on a given day.

Group B Winner Pick: FC Porto (+275)

Sérgio Conceição’s club is getting a bit disrespected by sportsbooks, with the vast majority favoring Atletico Madrid to win Group B.

The loss of Fábio Vieira to Arsenal in the transfer window has been a setback, but that has not stopped Porto from starting their season 3-0. What the Dragões lack in top-end talent, they more than make up with confidence and intensity.

Group B To Advance: Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid is on the hunt for their first Champions League trophy. The side from the Spanish capital fell in the quarterfinals last season with a 1-0 aggregate loss to Manchester City.

Many consider Atletico the favorite to win Group B over Porto. However, Diego Simeone’s lack of commitment to a more progressive play style can sometimes hold them back, recently losing to Villarreal.

Expect Atletico Madrid to advance, but do not be surprised if Leverkusen makes a serious challenge.

UCL Group C Odds

  • Bayern Munich (-115)
  • FC Barcelona (+160)
  • Inter Milan (+450)
  • FC Viktoria Plzen (+10000)

Welcome to the Group of Death.

Two of the most popular teams in the tournament will face off in arguably the most challenging group in the Champions League. Robert Lewandowski will be reunited with his former club Bayern Munich following his transfer to FC Barcelona, who have been on a spending spree during the transfer window. In addition, Italian side Inter Milan was added to the mix to add to the chaos.

What did Viktoria Plzen do to deserve this?

Group C Winner Pick: Bayern Munich (-115)

The Bundesliga powerhouse is among the favorites to win their group and the Champions League outright.

Bayern will reunite with striker Lewandowksi. However, manager Julian Nagelsmann's 4-2-2-2 has excelled with the addition of Mané.

Group C To Advance: FC Barcelona

Despite very public financial struggles, Barcelona defied reality by bringing in Lewandowski, Raphinha, Franck Kessié, Andreas Christensen, and Jules Koundé to strengthen their club.

While there is little doubt surrounding the pure talent in Xavi’s starting eleven, the fact remains that Bayern defeated Barcelona twice last year in group play. Therefore, this will be an important test for the rebuilding La Liga side.

UCL Group D Odds

  • Tottenham Hotspur (-185)
  • Eintracht Frankfurt (+450)
  • Olympique Marseille (+600)
  • Sporting Lisbon (+600)

Tottenham Hotspur are the “winners” of the group draw, if there is such a thing.

Frankfurt, the reigning Europa League champions, were arguably the weakest Pot 1 club in the Champions League this season. However, the battle for second place could get interesting, with Marseille standing a great chance to advance as a Pot 3 club.

Group D Winner Pick: Tottenham Hotspur (-185)

Tottenham has one of the more accessible paths to qualifying out of the group stage due to their draw. Eintracht Frankfurt was the weakest Pot 1 team, and Antonio Conte should have no issues navigating through Marseille and Sporting Lisbon.

Group D To Advance: Olympique Marseille

The race for second in Group D should be interesting, with any remaining teams capable of capturing the honor. However, I will pick Olympique Marseille following the additions of Alexis Sánchez, Jordan Veretout, Chancel Mbemba, and Matteo Guendouzi.

UCL Group E Odds

  • Chelsea (-185)
  • AC Milan (+200)
  • FC Salzburg (+800)
  • GNK Dinamo Zagreb (+5000)

Group E is one of the more balanced draws in the tournament this season. However, the uncertainty following Chelsea due to their inconsistent play makes this a wide-open competition to qualify, with AC Milan and FC Salzburg capable of causing headaches.

Group E Winner Pick: Chelsea (-185)

Chelsea is still working diligently to improve their club during the final days of the summer transfer window, and their progress will have a massive impact on their chances in the Champions League.

The Blues have struggled to find consistency early in the Premier League season, but they have a very talented defense consisting of Kalidou Koulibaly, Thiago Silva, and Reece James.

Look for Thomas Tuchel to lead Chelsea past AC Milan to win Group E.

Group E To Advance: AC Milan

AC Milan captured the Scudetto for the first time in 11 years, but the additions of Divock Origi and Charles De Ketelaere do not quite make up for the departure of Kessié.

FC Salzburg is no pushover, but Chelsea and Milan should have no issues qualifying for the next round.

UCL Group F Odds

  • Real Madrid (-350)
  • RB Leipzig (+280)
  • Celtic (+1600)
  • FC Shakhtar Donetsk (+5000)

The road for Real Madrid to repeat as champion looks to have started on the right foot with this draw. RB Leipzig and Celtic are certainly no pushovers, but as far as group stage opponents go, this should be smooth sailing for La Casa Blanca.

Group F Winner Pick: Real Madrid (-350)

Just how good is Real Madrid? Casemiro is now with Manchester United, and last season's success in the Champions League was less about team dominance and more about the impressive performance of Karim Benzema and Thibaut Courtois.

I expect Real Madrid to cruise into the next round of competition out of Group F, but beyond that, I have questions.

Group F To Advance: RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig is likely happy to be a part of Group F after running into Manchester City and Paris-Saint Germain in the group stage last season.

However, the loss of Tyler Adams has left a massive hole on defense, leaving the German side winless through three games in the Bundesliga.

Celtic could present a legitimate obstacle for Leipzig to advance, but for now, we will give the nod to the Red Bulls.

UCL Group G Odds

  • Manchester City (-600)
  • Sevilla FC (+7000)
  • Borussia Dortmund (+7000)
  • FC Copenhagen (+10000)

Manchester City enters the Champions League as the most significant betting favorite on the board to win their group. The fight for second between Sevilla and Dortmund should be an exciting battle.

Group G Winner Pick: Manchester City (-600)

A reunion between Norwegian striker Erling Haaland and his former club Borussia Dortmund may be intriguing for newspaper headlines. However, there is little to suggest the Bundesliga side has a real chance to compete with the Sky Blues.

Manchester City has reached the semifinals and the final in the past two seasons and should easily win Group G under the guidance of Pep Guardiola.

Group G To Advance: Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund, who replaced Haaland with Sébastien Haller and Anthony Modeste, have a slight edge over Sevilla to earn the second qualifying spot out of Group G.

In 2021, the two sides met in a final-16 tie that saw Borussia Dortmund edge out Sevilla 5-4 on aggregate. Haaland scored four of those five goals, but the loss of Koundé and Diego Carlos will prove more costly for the La Liga club.

Group H Best Bet to Win

  • Paris Saint-Germain (-300)
  • Juventus (+260)
  • Benfica (+1200)
  • Maccabi Haifa FC (+10000)

Group H Winner Pick: Paris Saint-Germain (-300)

There are three reasons Paris Saint-Germain should cruise to an easy Group H victory: Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Neymar.

PSG have scored 17 goals in their first three league games in Ligue 1 and have not been knocked out at the group stage since 2004.

Group H To Advance: Juventus

It has been 26 years since Juventus won the Champions League while losing in the second round of the competition three years in a row.

However, the Italian side should have no issues qualifying out of the group with their primary competition, Benfica, severely weakened by the loss of Darwin Núñez to Liverpool.