The second leg of the Copa Libertadores final could not be more finely balanced as River Plate and deadly rivals Boca Juniors meet at the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday evening.
River Plate twice came back from a goal down to leave La Bombonera with a 2-2 draw in the Superclasico a fortnight ago, firmly putting them in the driving seat for this weekend’s meeting in Madrid.
After being delayed due to an attack on Boca's bus by River fans, Conmebol took the unprecedented step to move the final away from South America for the first time ever.
bet365 make River Plate 8/5 (2.40) favourites to win the match in 90 minutes and lift the Copa Libertadores trophy for the fourth time in their history.
Boca are chasing Independiente’s record of seven titles and victory here will match that tally, and they are quoted at 21/10 (3.10) to do just that inside regular time.
Another draw, which would see the sides play extra time as away goals do not count for the final, can be backed at 9/5 (2.80).
River Plate striker Rafael Borre picked up his third yellow card of the knockout stages and is suspended for Saturday, whilst Nicolas De La Cruz remains out.
Cristian Pavon is fighting to be fit after playing just 24 minutes in the first leg and missing Boca’s last two league games with a torn hamstring. Frank Fabra is still recovering from a torn ACL.
The first leg of this final surpassed all expectations with four goals – a play priced that was priced at 6/1 (7.0) – and a repeat seems unlikely given what is at stake.
Prior to that stalemate, no leg of the final had seen more than three goals since 2010 and Superclasicos tend to be low-scoring affairs, with just four of the last 12 seeing over 2.5 strikes.
Conmebol have made just 5,000 tickets available for each set of fans in Argentina and Real Madrid will sell 25,000 to supporters of each team, but this is very likely to lead to a subdued atmosphere.
Away goals not counting makes the first leg redundant and although bet365 make under 2.5 goals just 4/9 (1.44), there is perhaps evidence to suggest it will be a relatively open game.
Tips and Predictions
Backing River at 13/8 (2.63) to score more than once would have been the best bet had this match been played at El Monumental, like it was originally intended to be.
Having found the net twice in the away leg, Enzo Francescoli’s men will certainly back themselves to at least score here and it is the 11/10 (2.10) quote for Both Teams to Score that looks the best value here.
This has landed in three of the last of the last five competitive meetings between the sides and with it all to play for on Sunday night, we could see plenty of attacking intent from both sides.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.