It might be an international break, but we can still look at some of the trends with the referees that have been allocated matches.
Have they been harsher than usual this season? Do their tendencies alter when they’re overseeing an international fixture?
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Ukraine vs Georgia: Over 4.5 total cards | |
Turkey vs Montenegro: Over 4.5 total cards | |
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Germany: Bosnia and Herzegovina -2 | |
Serbia vs Switzerland: Switzerland over 2.5 cards | |
Poland vs Portugal: Joao Palhinha to get booked |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Julian Weinberger – Ukraine vs Georgia (Friday)
Brandishing eight cards in his lone Europa League appearance this season, it’s a no-brainer taking the over with Julian Weinberger refereeing Ukraine and Georgia on Friday night.
Weinberger has been averaging over eight cards per match in the top flight of Austrian football this season.
He’s at over six per game in the Nations League and has generally been quick to show cards across a range of competitions.
Tip: Over 4.5 total cards @ 5/6 with bet365
Daniele Chiffi – Turkey vs Montenegro (Friday)
Only five teams (of those that have played two matches at the time of writing) have been shown more cards than Turkey in the Nations League. Montenegro have been shown six cards across their two fixtures and seen their opponents carded six times.
There isn’t much to go on from Daniele Chiffi this season. He averages north of four cards per match for his career, however, and almost five per match in Serie B.
Expecting a feisty affair in Samsun, we wouldn’t be surprised if there were seven or eight total cards in this match.
Tip: Over 4.5 total cards @ 5/6 with bet365
François Letexier – Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Germany (Friday)
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s opponents have had just one card across their first two Nations League matches. Germany have been shown only four cards over their first two fixtures.
It’s inevitable Julian Nagelsmann’s side will dominate this match. Bosnia and Herzegovina are going to be under significant pressure from the first whistle.
French referee François Letexier is in charge here. He showed five cards to Croatia in his last international match and booked three England players in the Euro 2024 final. Averaging over four cards per match for his career in Ligue 1, look for the stern Frenchman to put several Bosnia and Herzegovina players into the book and cover this handicap.
Tip: Bosnia and Herzegovina -2 card handicap @ 9/2 with bet365
Simone Sozza – Serbia vs Switzerland (Saturday)
Serbia’s opponents amassed eight yellow cards over their first two Nations League fixtures. Gibraltar, Lichtenstein, and San Marino are the only teams averaging more yellows per 90 minutes than Switzerland.
Torino and Lazio, the away teams in Simone Sozza’s last two matches, have each been shown three yellow cards. Each of Sozza’s matches this season have seen him book away players than home players.
In what looks set to be a combative match in Leskovac, we think there’s value taking Switzerland’s cards over at this price.
Tip: Switzerland to have over 2.5 cards @ & 5/6 with bet365
Serdar Gözübüyük – Poland vs Portugal (Saturday, Time)
Joao Palhinha is one of the safest bets to receive a card. A regular starter for Portugal under Roberto Martinez, the former Fulham midfielder should get the start here. He is expected to be available after personal issues caused him to miss the start of training camp.
Dutch referee Serdar Gözübüyük has shown three or more cards in all of his matches this season, including eight when Serbia faced Spain in the Nations League last month.
Palhinha picked up a couple of cards at the Euros. He’s already got a caution in 129 league minutes this season and had 27 over two Premier League campaigns with Fulham.
Tip: Joao Palhinha to get booked @ 21/10 with bet365