Ref Watch: Which Referees Are a Sure Bet for Card Markets?

Below, we have analysed the trends from Premier League referees to identify our four favourite wagers from this weekend’s slate.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Simon Hooper – Crystal Palace vs Liverpool (Saturday, 12:30pm)

Crystal Palace and Liverpool have combined for just 23 cards so far this season. Across the Premier League and Championship, Simon Hooper has averaged 4.8 yellow cards per match. In 2023-24, however, Hooper averaged 4.44 yellows per Premier League fixture, and he went under this total cards line in five of his last six matches last season.

There haven’t been substantial refereeing changes to make Hooper significantly stricter. Liverpool and Palace are both below-average in fouls committed per match. There’s value taking the under here – we think Hooper’s higher card totals this season are down to the fixtures he’s been allocated rather than his refereeing tendencies.

Tip: Under 4.5 total cards 8/11 with bet365

Peter Bankes – Manchester City vs Fulham (Saturday, 3pm)

Peter Bankes produced 4.9 yellows per match in the Premier League last season and sits at 5.5 after officiating two matches in 2024-25. Manchester City don’t tend to pick up many cards, but we are relying on Fulham to power us towards this over.

Chelsea are the only team to have gone into the referee’s book more times than Fulham this term. They collected four away to Nottingham Forest last weekend and had six in their home win over Newcastle.

With Savinho, Jack Grealish, and Jeremy Doku providing mazy dribbling on the flanks, Fulham are bound to be drawn into plenty of fouls. They could clear this line on their own.

Tip: Over 4.5 total cards 6/5 with bet365

Andy Madley – Brentford vs Wolves (Saturday, 3pm)

Brentford are generally a combative team. Their physicality is an asset under Thomas Frank. They have seen the fewest cards in the Premier League this season, however, and have committed the fewest fouls per match at 6.2.

With Wolves desperate to break their four-match losing streak, and committing the most fouls per match, bettors can find some value backing the visitors on the card handicap if your bookmaker offers those markets.

Instead, we are taking the under on total cards with the ultra-lenient Andy Madley in charge. Madley showed only two cards in his first Premier League match of the season last weekend, plus he averaged under four cards per match in 2023-24.

Tip: Under 4.5 total cards 4/5 with bet365

Chris Kavanagh – Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest (Sunday, 2pm)

Chelsea have been shown the most cards in the Premier League this season with 21 cautions. Chris Kavanagh is the lead official for their clash with Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Kavanagh brandished nine total cards in Tottenham’s win over Manchester United last weekend.

In his last three matches, five of the six teams involved have clocked over 2.5 cards in 90 minutes. Of referees to take charge of four or more Premier League matches this season, only four have shown more yellow cards per contest.

Forest are joint-fifth in fouls drawn per match, giving Kavanagh plenty of opportunities to put Chelsea players into the book.

Tip: Chelsea to have over 2.5 cards 6/5 with bet365